000 AXNT20 KNHC 281032 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI SEP 28 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM KAREN HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF CONTINUED WEAKENING DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS BUT IS STILL A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. AT 28/0900 UTC KAREN WAS NEAR 14.1N 49.8W OR ABOUT 755 NM EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... MOVING WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. STRONG SWLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO HINDER ANY DEVELOPMENT. IN FACT CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER HAS DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A BAND OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE CENTER FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 44W-48W. TROPICAL STORM LORENZO IS CENTERED NEAR 20.6N 97.5W AT 28/0900 UTC OR 30 MILES...45 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TUXPAN MEXICO MOVING WEST AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT3/ WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. LORENZO MADE LANDFALL AT APPROXIMATELY 0500 UTC...ABOUT 40 N MI SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN. LORENZO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE MEXICAN STATE OF VERACRUZ...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ONLY EXTEND 30-40 NM FROM THE CENTER. MEXICAN RADAR FROM ALVARADO SHOWS CONVECTION INLAND TO THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-23N BETWEEN 95W-99W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E ATLC ALONG 29W SOUTH OF 20W MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE SHOWS UP WELL IN LOW LEVEL SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND VORTICITY...AND THE UW CIMSS TPW PRODUCTS WITH A GOOD MOISTURE SURGE. A 1011 MB LOW HAS SEPARATED FROM THE WAVE AND IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 14N25W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THIS SURFACE LOW FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 23W-27W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FURTHER S ON THE WAVE AXIS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 27W-30W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 76W S OF 21N MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA FROM 16N-23N BETWEEN 70W-75W. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO SPREAD OVER EASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA TODAY. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 14N25W 9N35W 13N50W 9N60W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED ABOVE WITH T.S. KAREN AND THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E ATLC...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 9W-12W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 20W-27W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO E OF TRINIDAD FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 58W-60W. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... TROPICAL STORM LORENZO HAS MADE LANDFALL. SEE ABOVE. THE SLOW MOTION OF LORENZO WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ALONG ITS PATH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER HIGH IS OVER LORENZO WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NE TO N FLORIDA. DRIER AIR IS FILTERING INTO THE N GULF. BESIDES FOR LORENZO IN THE FAR SW GULF STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS. EXPECT CONVECTION OVER THE W GULF W OF 95W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS MOSTLY DUE TO LORENZO. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING WWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH SPARSE CONVECTION. SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF COSTA RICA FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 81W-83W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF E CUBA FROM 19N-20N BETWEEN 74W-78W. TRADE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE ACROSS THE BASIN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 19N83W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS S OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 15N73W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS BETWEEN 60W-80W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT CONVECTION OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 75W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1012 MB LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N78W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE LOW FROM 25N-32N BETWEEN 70W-76W. A 1025 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 36N56W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-70W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N56W. WLY FLOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N E OF 40W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE TROPICS NEAR 11N35W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM EQ-20N BETWEEN 20W-50W. $$ FORMOSA