000 AXNT20 KNHC 230015 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT SEP 22 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A 1008 MB LOW LOCATED 825 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES NEAR 36N44W IS INCREASING ITS CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND THUS LOOKING MORE TROPICAL. THE LOW IS PRESENTLY DRIFTING NE. THIS LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOSTLY W AND N OF THE CENTER FROM 35N-38N BETWEEN 46W-49W...AND FROM 37N-39N BETWEEN 44W-46W. ...TROPICAL WAVES AND TROPICAL LOWS... A 1010 MB LOW IS LOCATED S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 6N22W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THIS LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS IS FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 23W-27W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 10. LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE ITCZ. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 28W-36W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. AN EMBEDDED LOW LEVEL SWIRL IS NE OF THE MAIN AXIS NEAR 14N43W THAT MAY DEVELOP INTO A SEPARATE LOW IN THE FUTURE. CONVECTION IS AGAIN MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE ITCZ. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 44W-49W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 KT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED E OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 15N72W MASKING THE LOW LEVEL WAVE CURVATURE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER E CUBA FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 75W-77W. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 5N8W 6N20W 9N40W 9N50W 8N60W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE... SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN 12W-16W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 52W-56W. DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A 1012 MB LOW...THE REMNANTS OF T.D. TEN IS CENTERED OVER S MISSISSIPPI NEAR 31N90W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 26N90W 23N92W. E OF THE TROUGH AXIS SURFACE WINDS ARE 10-20 KT FROM THE S. W OF THE TROUGH AXIS SURFACE WINDS ARE 5-10 KT FROM THE N. FURTHER E... A GOOD AMOUNT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS ADVECTING N FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN TO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-27N BETWEEN 80W-88W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER S TEXAS NEAR 27N97W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE W GULF AND TEXAS W OF 90W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS E OF 90W. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION E OF 90W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W. SEE ABOVE. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 18N88W MOVING NW. SURFACE LOW MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN 85W-89W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FURTHER E OVER CUBA FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 78W-83W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N VENEZUELA FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 68W-72W. SURFACE TRADES ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 19N84W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N72W. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 80W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1021 MB HIGH IS NW OF BERMUDA NEAR 35N69W. A LONG SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC THAT EXTENDS SW TO E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 32N40W 27N45W 23N55W 15N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 38W-42W...FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 44W-57W...AND FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN 55W-58W. A 1025 MB HIGH IS E OF THE AZORES NEAR 38N20W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SW TO THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 23N40W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS ... A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W. A TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-70W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 14N45W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 32N23W. $$ FORMOSA