000 AXNT20 KNHC 220536 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT SEP 22 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN IS NOW INLAND OVER W FLORIDA CENTERED NEAR 30.6N 87.1W 9 NM NE OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA MOVING NW NEAR 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. THIS IS THE LAST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/ WTNT25 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC. SEE PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS TCPAT5/WTNT35 KWNH FOR MORE DETAILS. RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW BROKEN BANDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ROTATING AROUND THE DEPRESSION. ACTIVITY REMAINS IN THE N GULF N OF 28N AND HAS SPREAD WELL INLAND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE W OF PANAMA CITY AND S ALABAMA NEAR MOBILE. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS TITLED ALONG 17N29W TO 4N27W MOVING W 10-15 KT. NARROW LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W/40W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. MUCH OF THE WAVE ENERGY IS WITHIN THE ITCZ WITH A VERY BROAD FAINT INVERTED-V CURVATURE. WAVE IS BENEATH A BROAD UPPER HIGH ALSO MASKING THE SIGNATURE WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 73W S OF 18N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE N PORTION OF THE WAVE LIES BENEATH AN UPPER LOW AND IS ENHANCING ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THAT UPPER LOW. THIS SHALLOW WAVE IS ONLY SEEN ON THE MIMIC TPW ANIMATION WHICH DEPICTS A NARROW MODEST MOISTURE SURGE MOVING PAST THE ABC ISLANDS. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N12W 5N21W 12M38W 6N57W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE MOVING OFF W AFRICA FROM 9N-14N E OF 20W. A 1012 MB LOW WAS ADDED AT 0000 UTC NEAR 6N17W...EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ...MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 17W-22W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 41W-52W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 27W-33W. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WAS THE PRIME FOCUS EARLIER THIS EVENING WITH THE ACTIVITY OVER THE FLORIA PENINSULA TAKING PRECEDENCE NOW. BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS INTO THE W ATLC IS GENERATING DIFFLUENCE AND ADVECTING ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA MOVING N NEAR 25 TO 30 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE GULF FROM 26N-28N E OF 85W. AN UPPER LOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF ADVECTING DRY CONTINENTAL AIR ACROSS THE W GULF W OF 90W THUS LIMITING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE T.D. TEN. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL AMERICA ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE W ATLC WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED BENEATH THIS UPPER RIDGE FROM 23N86W IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ACROSS HONDURAS/NICARAGUA NEAR 16N86W TO NEAR 13N83W. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS GENERATING DIFFLUENCE AND ADVECTING ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF 80W. AN UPPER LOW IS OVER HAITI PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 71W-74W. UPPER RIDGE FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH DRY STABLE AIR E OF 70W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE FAR W ATLC W OF 72W ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS GENERATING DIFFLUENCE AND ADVECTING ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA MOVING N NEAR 25 TO 30 KT AND IN THE W ATLC FROM 24N-30N W OF 77W TO OVER THE E COAST OF FLORIDA. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF INGRID...EXTENDS ALONG 26N68W TO 22N70W. THIS SHALLOW SYSTEM IS ONLY GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC IS A LONG DRAWN OUT SURFACE TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS FROM A NEAR STATIONARY 1011 MB LOW N OF THE REGION NEAR 35N46W ALONG 30N46W 25N53W TO 14N58W. SCATTERED SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 250/300 NM SE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THIS SURFACE TROUGH LIES ON THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE NW AND A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE TROPICAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 11N36W. A SECOND UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR E ATLC EXTENDING FROM THE CANARY TO OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS PRODUCING ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 27N21W TO BEYOND 32N24W. A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB E OF THE AZORES. $$ WALLACE