000 AXNT20 KNHC 171049 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON SEP 17 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID IS DISSIPATING EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. AT 17/0900 UTC INGRID IS CENTERED NEAR 17.7N 60.0W OR ABOUT 100 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANTIGUA MOVING WEST AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB. INGRID CONTINUES TO LACK ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION...AND NO LONGER QUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE CIRCULATION HAS LITTLE SIGNATURE IN THE LOW CLOUD LINES AND ITS CENTER SEEMS TO NO LONGER BE WELL DEFINED. CONSEQUENTLY...THE LAST ADVISORY WAS ISSUED BY THE NHC AT THIS TIME. THE REMNANTS OF INGRID ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ...TROPICAL WAVES... THIS MORNING...THERE IS ONLY ONE TROPICAL WAVE BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE WAVE IS TILTED FROM 19N41W TO 6N43W. A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING NEAR 12N43W. 850 MB MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STRONG VORTICITY MAXIMUM IN THIS AREA. IN ADDITION...THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT DEPICTS VERY CLEAR THE BULGE OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 160-220 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 40W-46W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 74W/75W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS EXTEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHWARD TO HISPANIOLA...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT THEY COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN OR EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N16W 8N25W 13N41W 11N45W 8N60W. IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE... SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 47W-52W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM S AXIS E OF 25W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS JUST MOVING OFF THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N/11N. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A NEW TROPICAL WAVE. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM AROUND 0700 UTC DEPICTED A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION BETWEEN 8N-16N. THE VERTICAL SOUNDING FROM DAKAR IS SHOWING THE PASSAGE OF WAVE EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS TROPICAL WAVE WILL PROBABLY BE ADDED ON THE 12Z SURFACE MAP. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW IS OVER THE SW GULF/ W BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N96W COVERING MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF. AN UPPER HIGH IS IN THE SE GULF NEAR 23N85W. DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO UPPER FEATURES IS ENHANCING SOME SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. A DEEP LAYERED UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E US INTO THE NE GULF. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 31N74W WHERE IT BECOMES NEAR STATIONARY THEN CONTINUES ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE CENTRAL GULF TO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. LIGHTNING DATA REVEALS TSTM ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT...PARTICULARLY JUST E OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...N OF DAYTONA BEACH AND OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE GULF. DRY AIR IS INVADING THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT. A SFC TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE SE GULF AND EXTENDS FROM FORT MYERS WESTERN FLORIDA THROUGH WESTERN CUBA INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE TROUGH COUPLED WITH A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE SE GULF. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME DIFFUSE TODAY AND DISSIPATE TUE. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER HIGH IN THE SE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS WEST-CENTRAL CUBA...THE NW CARIBBEAN AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. ANOTHER RIDGE ANCHORED ON A HIGH OVER NE VENEZUELA DOMINATES THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. IN BETWEEN...THERE IS AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NEAR 12N82W. ABUNDANT MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED EAST OF THE LOW/TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN INTO THE W ATLC THROUGH PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THIS UPPER FEATURES IS HELPING TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAINLY OVER THE ISLANDS OF HISPANIOLA...CUBA...AND JAMAICA AS WELL AS OVER THE SE BAHAMAS. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE BASIN. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE SE BAHAMAS/NORTHERN HISPANIOLA WITH THE TRAILING UPPER TROUGH. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE E US AND THE NE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC N OF 27N W OF 72W WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 31N74W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO AS NEAR STATIONARY FRONT. A 100 NM WIDE BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS RELATED TO THE FRONT. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SE GULF INTO THE STATE OF FLORIDA AND THE WESTERN ATLC W OF 70W. AN UPPER LOW IS NEAR 27N61W COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO CENTRAL ATLC. THIS LOW IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 23N-29N BETWEEN 52W-60W. A SFC TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 62W/63W N OF 23N ON THE 06 Z MAP. ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS SITUATED NEAR 32N35W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE EXTENDING FROM A WEAK 1018 MB LOW NEAR 32N36W THROUGH 29N36W TO 25N43W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 180 NM EAST OF THE SFC LOW/TROUGH. BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING ALONG 16N FROM W AFRICA TO JUST SE OF INGRID NEAR 52W. STRONG WLY UPPER WINDS ARE SEEN OVER THE ATLC N OF 20N E OF 60W. $$ GR