000 AXNT20 KNHC 161801 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID IS CENTERED NEAR 17.2N 57.9W...OR ABOUT 260 NM/415 KM EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON 16/1500 UTC. INGRID IS MOVING WEST 10 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC OR THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. INGRID IS MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY DESPITE THE HOSTILE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. IN FACT...THE APPEARANCE OF THE SYSTEM IS LESS DISORGANIZED THAN IT WAS 24 HOURS AGO...WITH THE CENTER NO LONGER EXPOSED FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 54W-59W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A LARGE ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOSTLY E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 35W-40W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FURTHER N FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 38W-43W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. THIS IS A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE WITH AN INVERTED-V CURVATURE NOT FAR N OF THE ITCZ. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-12N BETWEEN 44W-50W. AN CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 67W-71W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 8N25W 12N40W 8N50W 8N60W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION... WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 5N-16N BETWEEN 7W-17W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 30W-34W. DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA TO SE TEXAS ALONG 29N80W 28N85W 29N95W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN 83W-85W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE SE GULF NEAR 26N83W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SW GULF NEAR 21N94W. ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUD IS S OF 28N. EXPECT THE FRONT TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND T.D. INGRID IS APPROACHING THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 75W-84W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS 15N-17N BETWEEN 87W-89W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS W OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N75W. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT CONVECTION W OF 70W MOSTLY DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N74W 29N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTEND 120 NM E OF THE FRONT. A 1015 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 32N36W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW TO 29N35W 27N42W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 30N-34N BETWEEN 31W-36W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 27N61W. DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 53W-56W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 33N35W ABOVE THE NEARBY SURFACE LOW. WLY FLOW IS FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 15W-50W. $$ FORMOSA