000 AXNT20 KNHC 161112 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN SEP 16 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID AT 16/0900 UTC IS NEAR CENTERED 16.9N 55.7W...OR ABOUT 287 NM/530 KM EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. INGRID IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 9 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC OR THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N TO 17.5N BETWEEN 55W AND 56.5W. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING DURING THE LAST 4 TO 5 HOURS ELSEWHERE FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 52W AND 57W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 57W AND 60W. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W/40W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ITCZ FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 34W AND 39W...POSSIBLY NOT RELATED ALL THAT MUCH TO THIS WAVE. OTHER STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FIRST AREA...FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 36W AND 38W...AND FROM 5N TO 6.5N BETWEEN 34W AND 36W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 12N42W 14N40W 16N37W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W/47W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN INDIVIDUAL CELLS WITHIN A 15 TO 30 NM RADIUS OF 11N44W AND 8N46W...AND FROM 9N TO 10.5N BETWEEN 44W AND 45W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 47W AND 50W. ALL THIS PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ITCZ. AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W/72W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT...PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A CYCLONIC CENTER COVERS THE AREA OF THIS WAVE NORTH OF 14N. A MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS ON TOP OF THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 69W AND 70W...ON TOP OF LAKE MARACAIBO IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THIS WAVE IS ALONG 96W/97W SOUTH OF 21N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS IN AN AREA OF BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OFF THE COAST OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. ...THE ITCZ... FROM THE AFRICA COAST NEAR 9N13W TO 8N18W 12N13W 12N38W 8N45W 8N49W 8N61W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 30W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. ALL THE REST OF THE AREAS OF PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN THE SEPARATE PARAGRAPHS ABOUT THE TROPICAL WAVES. DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 70W AND NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH ALREADY HAS CROSSED THE U.S.A. AND IT HAS REACHED THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 31N79W TO NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. A TROUGH IS ABOUT 60 TO 90 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 79W AND 89W. THE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN FALLING BEHIND THIS FRONT. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 21N93W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE OFF THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST. THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SOUTH OF 28N WEST OF 65W... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR HAITI/THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 14N TO 28N BETWEEN 65W AND 81W ACROSS WESTERN CUBA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN INDIVIDUAL CLUSTERS ARE SPREAD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS FROM 18N TO 26N BETWEEN 60W AND 83W NEAR WESTERN CUBA. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA FINDS ITSELF UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE 21N93W CYCLONIC CENTER. CYCLONIC FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS FLOW MEETS THE ONRUSHING UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS IMMEDIATELY TO THE WEST OF THE HAITI MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA TOWARD NICARAGUA. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW MERGES WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE HAITI CYCLONIC CENTER ALONG 14N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN 75W AND THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 26N57W. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS FROM 21N TO 33N BETWEEN 49W AND 65W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N TO 28N BETWEEN 52W AND 61W. A DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 32N37W ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE 1012 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 34N37W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 29N37W AND 26N43W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 25N42W 28N37W 30N34W...AND FROM 31N TO 35N BETWEEN 32W AND 36W. $$ MT