000 AXNT20 KNHC 150604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT SEP 15 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM INGRID AT 15/0300 UTC IS NEAR CENTERED 15.9N 51.5W...OR ABOUT 570 NM/1050 KM EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. INGRID IS MOVING NORTHWEST 7 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC OR THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N TO 16N BETWEEN 51W AND 52.5W. INGRID IS CURRENTLY IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL WINDS THAT ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W/32W SOUTH OF 19N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 11.5N. THE UW-CIMSS TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ANIMATION SHOWS A WELL DEFINED WIDE MOISTURE PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE...MAKING IT EASY TO TRACK. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14.5N TO 15.5N BETWEEN 26W AND 31W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 15N31W 14N33W 11N35W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 5 TO 10 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 37W AND 39W...FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 39W AND 40W...AND FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 42W AND 43W. THIS PRECIPITATION ALSO IS IN THE ITCZ. AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W/66W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT...IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS JUST EAST OF PUERTO RICO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N TO 14.5N BETWEEN 64W AND 67W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 60W AND 67W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. THE SHOWERS IN THIS AREA ARE AT THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 26N69W CYCLONIC CENTER. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ACROSS MEXICO AND WESTERN GUATEMALA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THIS WAVE IS ALONG 91W/92W SOUTH OF 22N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS IN AN AREA OF BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW...COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 91W AND 95W. ...THE ITCZ... 8N13W 11N22W 11N29W 10N34W 7N41W 8N45W 14N48W 13N53W 10N63W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 30W...FROM 2N TO 9N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W...AND ELSEWHERE FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 49W. DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE SOUTHWESTWARD ABOUT 300 NM INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FEATURE IS UNDERNEATH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE RIDGE IS ALONG 31N81W 26N89W 25N94W TO THE NORTHEASTERN MEXICO COAST NEAR 24N98W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE U.S.A... FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE OHIO VALLEY TO ARKANSAS AND NORTH TEXAS. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE 31N81W 24N98W RIDGE. ONE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER APPEARS TO BE NEAR 23N87W. A WEAK REMNANT OF A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER IS NEAR 21N92W CURVING TO INTERIOR MEXICO JUST WEST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA IS SENDING UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AS FAR TO THE EAST AS 70W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF 14N WEST OF 76W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. A 500 MB TROUGH STRETCHES FROM COLOMBIA NORTHWESTWARD TO NICARAGUA. THIS PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 300 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE ITCZ. THE ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W ARE MOST PROBABLY RELATED TO THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE 26N69W ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE 26N69W MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS SPREADING SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N TO 24N BETWEEN 63W AND 70W. UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTHWEST OF THE 26N69W CYCLONIC CENTER. A SURFACE TROUGH IS FROM 20N66W TO 23N67W TO 25N68W. A SECOND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 25N54W. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS CENTER BASICALLY COVERS THE AREA FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 49W AND 60W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 24N TO 26.5N BETWEEN 52W AND 56W...AND FROM 21N TO 22N BETWEEN 51W AND 53W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N39W 26N42W 22N44W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 35N38W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO 32N37W AND TO 27N41W. A SHEAR LINE STRETCHES FROM 27N41W TO THE 25N54W CYCLONIC CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THROUGH 31N34W 29N38W 27N40W 21N42W. THE SOUTHERNMOST POINT OF A TROUGH WHOSE CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS MOROCCO FROM THE NORTH IS NEAR 27N12W. $$ MT