000 AXNT20 KNHC 150011 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI SEP 14 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM INGRID IS CENTERED NEAR 15.6N 50.6W AT 14/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 710 NM...1145 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MOVING NORTHWEST AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THE CENTER FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 49W-52W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W S OF MOVING W 10-15 KT. A 1008 MB LOW IS ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 10N. THE UW-CIMSS TPW ANIMATION SHOWS A WELL DEFINED WIDE MOISTURE PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE...MAKING IT EASY TO TRACK. A CURVED BAND OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW QUADRANT ALONG 15N28W 14N31W 11N34W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FURTHER S ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 23W-33W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W S OF 17N MOVING W 5-10 KT. THIS WAVE IS STILL SHOWING AN INVERTED V-PATTERN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. MOST OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS WITHIN THE ITCZ. WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 35W-45W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE SSMI DERIVE TPW INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF THIS WAVE AS WELL AS SFC DATA. THE WAVE IS GENERATING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND NE VENEZUELA. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 91W S OF 21N MOVING W 15 KT. THE WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO GUATEMALA TO THE EPAC. A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING IS MOST PRONOUNCED S OF GUATEMALA. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN 88W-92W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 11N25W 7N35W 7N42W 13N50W 10N62W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES AND T.S. INGRID... SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 13W-16W. DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SE LOUISIANA TO S TEXAS ALONG 30N90W 27N97W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOSTLY S OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 89W-99W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER S FLORIDA FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 81W-83W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N FLORIDA FROM 30N-31N BETWEEN 81W-88W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER W CUBA FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 80W-85W. THE NRN EXTENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SEE ABOVE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED OVER N FLORIDA NEAR 30N82W. IT IS PRODUCING ANTICYCLONIC TURNING OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS IS N OF 26N. EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE E OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W OVER THE SRN BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER CENTRAL AMMMERICA...AND ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA. A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N74W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 76W-84W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 70W-72W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N80W. THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN N OF 10N AND E OF 70W. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS W OF 70W. EXPECT CONVECTION MAINLY DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 34N57W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS FURTHER S OVER THE TROPICS ALONG 26N70W 20N65W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE TROUGH. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 30N38W 22N43W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 27N-31N BETWEEN 37W-40W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 22N W OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 26N67W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 26N53W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS W OF T.S. INGRID NEAR 14N57W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS E OF T.S. INGRID NEAR 16N40W. ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 20N26W. $$ FORMOSA