000 AXNT20 KNHC 141742 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI SEP 14 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... INGRID IS MOVING SLOWLY OVER OPEN WATERS AND TEMPORARILY STRENGTHENS. TROPICAL STORM INGRID IS CENTERED NEAR 15.2N 50.0W AT 14/1500 UTC OR ABOUT 655 NM...1210 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. FIXES FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF INGRID IS CLOSER TO CONVECTION. HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO DETERIORATE THANKS TO A STRONGER THAN NORMAL SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SMALL CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THE CENTER OF INGRID. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST KEEPS INGRID AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT INGRID WILL NOT LAST THROUGH THIS WHOLE PERIOD. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS TITLED FROM 16N26W TO 3N28W MOVING W 10-15 KT. A 1010 MB LOW IS ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 10N...CONFIRMED BY A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING IN AN EARLIER QSCAT PASS. OVERALL...THIS WAVE HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION LIMITED AND DISORGANIZED. A CURVED BAND OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS IS ON THE NORTHERN END OF WAVE AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS. THE UW-CIMSS TPW ANIMATION SHOWS A WELL DEFINED WIDE MOISTURE PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE...MAKING IT EASY TO TRACK. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W S OF 17N MOVING W 5-10 KT. MOST OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS WITHIN THE ITCZ. THIS WAVE IS STILL SHOWING AN INVERTED V-PATTERN ON VIS SAT IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 38W-42W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE SSMI DERIVE TPW INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF THIS WAVE AS WELL AS SFC DATA. THE WAVE IS GENERATING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND NE VENEZUELA. TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND GUATEMALA INTO THE EPAC WHERE THERE IS A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING AND CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 11N25W 6N35W 10N45W 10N60W. BESIDES FOR THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES AND T.S. INGRID...NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS IS OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE GULF ASSOCIATED WITH HUMBERTO'S TRAILING TROUGH. THIS TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SE LOUISIANA TO THE DEEP SOUTH. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE SEEN OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF MAINLY NORTH OF 24N. A SFC RIDGE FROM THE ATLC DOMINATES THE EASTERN GULF AND THE STATE OF FLORIDA. ALOFT...AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED ON A HIGH OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA DOMINATES MOST OF THE GULF WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH LIES OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A WEDGE OF DRY AIR IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY BETWEEN 22N-25N DUE TO A SLIGHTLY CONFLUENT PATTERN BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGHING TO THE S AND E. MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND SOUTH MEXICO DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF AN INVERTED TROUGH. SFC WINDS ARE MOSTLY LIGHT FROM THE SE AND S...EXCEPT SW TO W IN THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE GULF. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 14 INCHES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH HUMBERTO THROUGH 700 AM CDT FRIDAY IN TEXAS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT RELATED TO AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED JUST OFF THE COLOMBIA COAST COUPLED WITH THE EPAC ITCZ AND THE SEMI-PERMANENT COLOMBIAN LOW IS HELPING TO DEVELOP CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N W OF 75W. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ALSO AFFECTING PARTS OF NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FOUND ON THE EPAC SIDE JUST SOUTH OF COSTA RICA/PANAMA. FAIRLY STRONG UPPER WLY FLOW...VERY UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT HAS SET UP ABOVE THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH OVER COLOMBIA AND UPPER TROUGHING OVER HISPANIOLA. THIS FLOW IS TRANSPORTING DEBRIS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE WESTERN-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE AIR DRIES OUT E OF 75W...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER HISPANIOLA AND THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 63W. TYPICAL TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE ALSO SEEN OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... TROPICAL STORM INGRID IS THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. FOR MORE DETAILS REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE. OTHER REGIONS OF ACTIVE WEATHER ARE AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS LOCATED N OF HISPANIOLA WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC TROUGH AND AN UPPER LOW...AND THE SECOND ONE... DETACHED FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ALONG 41W IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC TROUGH ALONG 39W/40W FROM 20N-31N. THE REMAINDER OF THE SFC PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY TYPICAL SUBTROPICAL RIDGING. ALOFT...A COMPLEX PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND W ATLC. THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER N FLORIDA COVERS THE W ATLC WEST OF 70W. A CYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES THE AREA BETWEEN 45W-70W WHERE THERE ARE A PAIR OF SPINNING UPPER LOWS...ONE IS NEAR 26N66W THE OTHER ONE IS NEAR 25N52W. THE TROPICAL E AND CENTRAL ATLC IS STILL DOMINATED BY A E-W RIDGE COVERING THE AREA FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES EWD WITH A MEAN AXIS ALONG 15N WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED ANTICYCLONES. $$ GR