000 AXNT20 KNHC 130000 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED SEP 12 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO IS CENTERED NEAR 28.8N 94.8W AT 13/0000 UTC OR ABOUT 35 MILES... 55 KM...SOUTH OF GALVESTON TEXAS MOVING NNE AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4 /WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. LANDFALL AT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IS EXPECTED IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE TRACK OF HUMBERTO THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS AS WELL AS WESTERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM ACCUMULATIONS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 93W-96W. A BAND OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE CENTER FROM 27N-31N BETWEEN 90W-92W. ANOTHER BAND IS S OF THE CENTER FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 92W-96W. TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT IS CENTERED NEAR 13.5N 45.5W AT 12/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 1065 MILES... 1715 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MOVING WNW AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS JUST W OF THE CENTER FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 45W-48W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E ATLC ALONG 36W S OF 24N MOVING W 15 KT. IN GENERAL...THIS WAVE HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE STRUCTURE REMAINS WELL DEFINED WITH A LARGE SHIELD OF CYCLONIC TURNING NOTED IN THE LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUD FIELD. IN ADDITION...THE UW-CIMSS TPW ANIMATION REVEALS A LARGE WWD PROPAGATING SURGE OF MOISTENED AIR. DESPITE THE FAIR STRUCTURE...DEEP MOISTURE IS SPARSE WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 33W-36W. TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 75W S OF 23N MOVING W 15-20 KT. A SURGE OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS WELL DEFINED ON THE TROPICAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ANIMATION FROM CIMSS. THE WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER CENTRAL CUBA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER E CUBA FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 74W-77W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF HAITI FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 72W-76W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 10N-11N BETWEEN 73W-76W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 10N20W 14N30W 13N40W 10N50W 9N60W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES AND TROPICAL WAVE SECTIONS... SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 16W-18W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 19W-26W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 31W-34W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 35W-44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 55W-60W. DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... T.S. HUMBERTO IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 88W-92W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER S FLORIDA FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 81W-83W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N FLORIDA FROM 30N-31N BETWEEN 81W-88W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...NE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CUBA. FAIRLY GOOD OUTFLOW IS NOTED OVER HUMBERTO. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT HUMBERTO TO BE INLAND WITHIN 24 HOURS PRODUCING A GOOD AMOUNT OF CONVECTION OVER E TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA. A 1004 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 8N75W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 80W-84W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER HONDURAS FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 83W-89W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N80W PRODUCING MOSTLY WLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT HINDERS TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE TROPICAL WAVE. EXPECT CONVECTION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 75W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N60W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N36W 28N40W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE TROUGH. A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 33N28W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 60W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 15N55W. ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 15N28W. $$ FORMOSA