000 AXNT20 KNHC 071811 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI SEP 07 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS NEAR 29N70W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 28N70W 25N74W. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 340 NM SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA...AND ABOUT 560 NM EAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA. THE 24-HOUR FORECAST IS FOR THIS LOW CENTER TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 30N76W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS TOP OF THE AREA OF THE LOW CENTER/TROUGH. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS WEST AND NORTHWEST OF 31N74W 28N74W 26N76W...REACHING THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 29N TO 30N BETWEEN 68W AND 69W...FROM 29N TO 31N BETWEEN 69W AND 70W...AND FROM 30N TO 31N BETWEEN 72W AND 73W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 63W AND 67W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE TROUGH GO FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 72W AND 78W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED THIS MORNING. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM MAY FORM LATER TODAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. RESIDENTS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W S OF 19N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 28W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 20W AND 25W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THE WAVE...WITH WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN SOME DRY AIR FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 30W AND 36W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W/49W SOUTH OF 24N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS...ALTERNATELY DEVELOPING AND THEN DISSIPATING WITH TIME...FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 47W AND 54W. A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 13N44W...SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 46W AND 48W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W/81W SOUTH OF 19N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IS ALONG THE LINE FROM NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA TO NORTHWESTERN JAMAICA. ANOTHER AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN 77W AND 80W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 81W AND 84W FROM THE COASTAL WATERS TO EXTREME EASTERN HONDURAS AND THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF NICARAGUA. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN WEST OF COLOMBIA FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 79W AND 81W. ...THE ITCZ... 11N15W 7N24W 6N32W 8N45W 9N50W 8N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 4N TO 9N BETWEEN 16W AND 31W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2N TO 11N BETWEEN 31W AND 47W. DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS LOUISIANA. SOME OF THIS FLOW EVENTUALLY REACHES THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL WATERS TO THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS/EXTREME NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND NORTHWARD BEYOND EASTERN ALABAMA/WESTERN GEORGIA. SOME OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH COVERS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA...AND POSSIBLY IT HAS REACHED THE EXTREME EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WATERS. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THE 18.5N96W REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF FELIX IN MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITHIN 90 TO 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 23N84W 26N86W 29N89W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITH THE 80W/81W TROPICAL WAVE. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THAT CYCLONIC CENTER TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF NICARAGUA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NORTHWEST OF THE TROUGH. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW...SURROUNDED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR...IS MOVING INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NOW EAST OF 66W. SOME OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN COLOMBIA NORTH OF 5N IS CURVING CYCLONICALLY TOWARD THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...WHILE ANOTHER BRANCH OF UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW CURVES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA INTO THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS ABOUND. ONE TROUGH IS ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THE 1012 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 29N70W WITH ITS TROUGH. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER OF HAITI/THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ANOTHER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 14N58W. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 58W AND 66W. A SEPARATE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 15N51W JUST WEST OF THE 48W/49W TROPICAL WAVE. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 30W AND AN APPROACHING DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT STILL IS JUST NORTH OF 30N. A 1022 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N34W. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THIS HIGH CENTER TO A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 27N60W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS. $$ MT