000 AXNT20 KNHC 051021 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED SEP 05 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM FELIX WAS DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT 05/0900 UTC. FELIX IS INLAND OVER HONDURAS CENTERED NEAR 14.0N 87.0W WHICH IS VERY NEAR TEGUCIGALPA MOVING W AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. THIS WAS THE LAST ADVISORY WRITTEN BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA...ALL OF HONDURAS...AND E GUATEMALA. THIS ACTIVITY COULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WATERS S OF 20N W OF 80W TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE AREA IS IN THE W ATLC CENTERED NEAR 29N72W AT 05/0900 UTC WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW TO 33N68W. THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVERNIGHT BUT UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION THAT COULD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION TO THE E WITHIN 150/180 NM OF A LINE FROM THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W TO 31N69W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE E COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FORT LAUDERDALE TO JACKSONVILLE. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W/36W S OF 21N MOVING W 10-15 KT. BROAD LOW/MID LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE COVERING THE AREA S OF 23N FROM 28W-45W OVERTAKING THE 1013 MB LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 30W-46W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W/68W S OF 21N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN SOME RATHER DRY STABLE AIR OVER THE E CARIBBEAN MASKING THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE AND LIMITING ANY SHOWERS/DEEP CONVECTION. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N14W 10N25W 12N34W 9N48W 10N61W. A NEAR STATIONARY WEAKENING 1013 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ NEAR 11N40W AND CHARACTERIZED BY A LOW LEVEL SWIRL WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA S OF 12N W OF 10W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 15W-37W. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO AND SE TEXAS TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY COVERING THE NW GULF N OF 24N W OF 93W. AN INVERTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE TO OVER THE CENTRAL GULF TO NEAR 27N91W DRAWING HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE T.D. FELIX INTO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS TO 24N ACROSS THE FAR E GULF AND FLORIDA PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM SE LOUISIANA NEAR 29N91W TO THE W COAST OF FLORIDA BETWEEN TAMPA AND FORT MYERS. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA REMAINS RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WITH POSSIBLE WIDELY ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. CARIBBEAN SEA... T.D. FELIX IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND STILL PRODUCING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN. FOR MORE DETAILS ON FELIX REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE. UPPER HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH FELIX COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 74W. AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR 15N67W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF 12N FROM 64W-67W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE N PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA INTO THE E PACIFIC ACROSS COSTA RICA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N FROM 71W-83W. DRY STABLE AIR IS COVERS REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN CLEARING SKIES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME WIDELY ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN BROUGHT IN BY THE MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N74W SW 24N78W WITH THE ASSOCIATED 1007 MB LOW AND SURFACE TROUGHS MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN UPPER HIGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC W OF 56W AND CENTERED NEAR 27N62W. AN UPPER TROUGH DIPS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH 32N50W TO 27N53W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 28N52W TO BEYOND 32N48W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY THE TYPICAL E/W UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM OFF AFRICA TO NEAR 42W CENTERED ROUGHLY ALONG 24W/25W. ABUNDANT DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE ATLC E OF 50W WITH A SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE AREA AND A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N37W. LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE ATLC. $$ WALLACE