000 AXNT20 KNHC 030602 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON SEP 03 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE FELIX IS CENTERED NEAR 14.0N 74.9W OR ABOUT 255 NM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AT 03/0600 UTC...MOVING W AT 18 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON OBSERVATIONS FROM AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 935 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 145 KT WITH GUSTS TO 175 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS INCLUDING THE LATEST WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION. FELIX CONTINUES ON A W PATH STEERED BY A STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE ATLC INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. FELIX CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH A WELL DEFINED EYE AND BROAD OUTFLOW MOSTLY TO THE N OF THE HURRICANE. SCATTERED/ NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER IN ALL QUADRANTS. A 1010 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM IS CENTERED NEAR 11N39W MOVING GENERALLY SW NEAR 5 KT. THE SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION DISPLACED W OF THE LOW FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 40W-46W. THE CIRCULATION REMAINS WELL-DEFINED ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME BUT THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W S OF 21N MOVING W 10-15 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A BROAD REGION OF LOW/MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. HOWEVER...NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION AND SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY VERY LIMITED. TROPICAL WAVE WAS ADDED ALONG 54W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE HAS A CLASSIC BROAD INVERTED-V CURVATURE WITH A MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 15N. HOWEVER...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AND SHOWER ACTIVITY IS SEVERELY LIMITED DUE TO THE DRY STABLE AIR OF THE ATLC. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN IS TILTED FROM 21N86W SE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 15N85W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE W AND PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF A LINE FROM 20N84W TO PANAMA NEAR 9N79W WITH THE LARGEST CONCENTRATION OF THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS BETWEEN 19N AND THE COAST OF HONDURAS. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 15N16W 12N26W 12N37W 9N45W 10N52W 9N61W. IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE 1010 MB LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION...CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-12N E OF 31W TO THE COAST OF W AFRICA AND WITHIN 90 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 52W-57W. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE N GULF COAST EXTENDING FROM A WEAK 1015 MB LOW OFF THE FLORIDA NE COAST ACROSS N FLORIDA PENINSULA THEN NE TO OVER S ALABAMA/ MISSISSIPPI TO THE E TEXAS DELINEATED BY A WIND SHIFT. THE TROUGH IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SW FLORIDA PENINSULA S OF 24N TO OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS E OF 84W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO TO ALONG THE TEXAS COAST TO SW LOUISIANA COVERING THE W GULF WITH AN UPPER HIGH OVER FLORIDA NEAR TAMPA INDUCING AN INVERTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SCENARIO IS PRODUCING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST FROM THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE TO JUST OFFSHORE NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS COUPLED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE W GULF IS GENERATING SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 21N-25N W OF 96W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA REMAINS RELATIVELY TRANQUIL TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. CARIBBEAN SEA... EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE FELIX IS THE MAIN FOCUS TONIGHT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN. ALL INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR MORE DETAILS ON FELIX REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 85W AND AN INVERTED MID/UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL AMERICA TO THE W YUCATAN CHANNEL IS PRODUCING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ABOVE. SEE ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. A SMALL UPPER LOW IS SITUATED BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS...FLORIDA...AND CUBA IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER W CUBA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS FROM 80W-84W. UPPER HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH FELIX IS PRODUCING GOOD OUTFLOW OVER FELIX FROM 66W-80W. DRY STABLE AIR IS FILTERING IN THE WAKE OF FELIX OVER THE E CARIBBEAN CLEARING SKIES ESPECIALLY FROM OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO PUERTO RICO. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SMALL UPPER LOW IS SITUATED BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS...FLORIDA... AND CUBA NEAR 24N80W PRODUCING ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE N AND CENTRAL BAHAMA ISLANDS. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH N OF THE REGION IS DRAPING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N57W SW ALONG 29N62W TO 29N69W WHERE IT BECOMES NEAR STATIONARY ALONG 32N76W TO THE WEAK 1015 MB LOW OFF THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 31N80W CONTINUING AS A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS N FLORIDA INTO THE N GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE FRONT E OF 63W. A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC WITH A WEAK 1019 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 25N66W. A NARROW AND ELONGATED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 25N54W WITH THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 29N51W TO JUST E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 15N59W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY THE TYPICAL E/W UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM OFF AFRICA TO NEAR 45W CENTERED ROUGHLY ALONG 23W/24W. ABUNDANT DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE ATLC E OF 50W WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH 32N32W TO A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 28N44W TO THE 1019 MB HIGH IN THE W ATLC ACROSS S FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE ATLC. $$ WALLACE