000 AXNT20 KNHC 021753 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN SEP 2 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE FELIX IS NOW A MAJOR HURRICANE. FELIX IS CENTERED NEAR 13.4N 71.2W OR ABOUT 425 NM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AT 02/1800 UTC...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 16 KT. THE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REPORTED THAT THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 964 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. FELIX CONTINUES ON A WNW PATH STEERED BY A STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM CURACAO SHOWS A WELL DEFINED EYE...EYEWALL AND RAINBANDS. IN ADDITION...FELIX HAS GAINED SYMMETRY TO ITS CLOUD PATTERN AND CONVECTION. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG EXISTS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 270 NM N...NEARING THE S SHORE OF HISPANIOLA...AND WITHIN 150 NM S OVER NRN VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS INCLUDING THE LATEST WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION. A 1009 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS CENTERED NEAR 12N39W MOVING W 10 KT. WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS WELL DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGES AND IN AN EARLIER QSCAT PASS CONVECTION REMAINS DISPLACED TO THE W OF THE CENTER...STRONGLY SHEARED BY UPPER E/SELY FLOW ON THE SW PERIPHERY OF A STRONG UPPER HIGH. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY STRETCHES FAIRLY FAR TO THE NW OF THE LOW FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 41W-47W...ENHANCED BY SPEED CONVERGENCE. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES INTO A LESS HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS TITLED ALONG 21N21W 6N19W ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING W 10-15 KT. SOUNDING DATA FROM DAKAR SHOWS A WAVE PASSAGE SOMETIME BEFORE 00Z. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A BROAD GYRE TYPE CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 15N21W. THERE IS A SURGE SIGNATURE TO THE NRN PART OF THE WAVE...HENCE THE REASON FOR THE TITLED STRUCTURE. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LIMITED LIKELY SUPPRESSED BY STABLE LOW TO MID LEVEL AIR SURROUNDING THIS FEATURE. TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE W CARIB ALONG 82W/83W S OF 22N MOVING W 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS WAVE HAS A TITLED ELY SURGE TYPE STRUCTURE. THE INTERACTION WITH AN INVERTED MID TO UPPER TROUGH HAS PRODUCED DISORGANIZED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. THE NRN EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER S MEXICO ALONG 92W/93W S OF 18N. REFER TO THE EAST PACIFIC TWD...MIATWDEP...FOR DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N21W 13N37W 8N40W 10N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 22W-30W. ISOLATED MODERATE IS FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 32W-42W. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A FRONT IS STALLED ACROSS THE N GULF COAST EXTENDING FROM N FLORIDA TO THE TEXAS COAST ALONG 29N. SFC OBS IN THE AREA INDICATE A PRONOUNCED WIND SHIFT AND ABOUT A 5 F DEG DEWPT CHANGE. THERE IS SOME OVERRUNNING PRECIP ACROSS THE NW GULF N OF 28N W OF 90W. MORE ORGANIZED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE IN THE WRN-MOST GULF S OF 27N W OF 94W ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 97W AND A HIGHLY DIFFLUENT UPPER PATTERN. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WITH PATCHES OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ROTATING AROUND AN INVERTED MID TO UPPER TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS NWD FROM THE W CARIB INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. SHIP...BUOY AND QSCAT DATA INDICATE THAT WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE E AND MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF BUT INCREASE OUT OF THE E/SE IN THE W GULF WHERE THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. LOOKING AHEAD A DAY OR TWO...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY GET EVEN QUIETER IN THE REGION AS WEAK HIGH PRES DEVELOPS IN THE N CENTRAL GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE FELIX IS THE MAIN EVENT IN THE CARIB BASIN. CURRENTLY...WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND GRAND CAYMAN. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FELIX HAS PRODUCED A 24-H RAINFALL TOTAL OF 2.14 INCHES IN CURACAO AND MORE IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. IN GENERAL...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE MAXIMUM ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...THE PARAGUANA PENINSULA OF NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA. FOR MORE DETAILS ON FELIX REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIB ALONG 83W AND AN INVERTED MID TO UPPER TROUGH IS PRODUCING A FAIR AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY IN THE W CARIB. SEE ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. ELSEWHERE...MID TO UPPER RIDGING N OF FELIX IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND W STEERING FELIX TO THE WNW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ACROSS THE CARIB SEA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHES E-W ALONG OUR N BORDER FROM S OF BERMUDA TO THE NE FLORIDA COAST. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS SOME ROTATION TO THE SCATTERED SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY OFF THE GEORGIA COAST FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 79W-81W. THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AS IT DRIFTS EWD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE N OF 28N BETWEEN 55W-64W. THIS IS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS SPREADS MUCH FARTHER S DRIVEN BY STRONG NLY FLOW BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 27N68W AND AN UPPER LOW NEAR 26N53W. FARTHER W...A MID-LEVEL LOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SW BAHAMAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN ITS CIRCULATION ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. IN THE E ATLC...A DOMINATING UPPER HIGH REMAINS PARKED ACROSS THE SUBTROPICS NEAR 23N27W. ABUNDANT DRY AIR ALOFT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS RIDGE. STRONG E TO SELY FLOW NEAR THE SW PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH IS SHEARING THE TROPICAL WAVE AND AREA OF LOW PRES ALONG 39W. ELSEWHERE AT THE SFC...SUBTROPICAL RIDGING HAS STRENGTHENED A BIT BUT HAS ALSO PRESSED FURTHER S. THIS PATTERN HAS ALLOWED TRADES TO REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. $$ CANGIALOSI