000 AXNT20 KNHC 020602 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN SEP 2 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... FELIX...THE SECOND HURRICANE OF THE 2007 HURRICANE SEASON WAS CENTERED NEAR 12.7N 67.8W AT 02/0600 UTC...OR ABOUT 40 NM NORTHEAST OF BONAIRE AND ABOUT 125 NM EAST OF ARUBA MOVING W NEAR 16 KT. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WAS 993 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. FELIX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A W OR WNW TRACK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS S OF RIDGING. WITH THE WARM CARIBBEAN SEA AND A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT EXPECTED ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND FELIX WILL BE A MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS INCLUDING THE LATEST WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IN OUTER RAINBANDS IS SEEN OVER EASTERN VENEZUELA AND OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE CENTER OF FELIX IS VERY WELL DEFINED IN THE DUTCH ANTILLES RADAR. A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF FELIX JUST NORTH OF BONAIRE...CURACAO...AND ARUBA ON SUNDAY. A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W...ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES...MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION TONIGHT...AND THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR IT TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 38W-42W...DISPLACED TO THE W OF THE EXPOSED CENTER DUE TO ABOUT 20 KT OF ELY SHEAR. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED ALONG 80W/81W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE SHOWS AN INVERTED-V SHAPE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH SCATTRED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS JUST SOUTH OF JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT...E OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WRN CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING THIS ACTIVITY. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE YUCATAN PENINSULA/GUATEMALA S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE COUPLED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER N CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N17W 10N35W 8N40W 12N61W. BESIDES FOR THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE MAINLY S OF THE AXIS FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 23W-44W...AND WITHIN ABOUT 100 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 21W-27W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE APPROACHING THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA PROBABLY ASSOCIATED WITH A NEW TROPICAL WAVE. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A FAIRLY WEAK SFC PRES PATTERN CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF TONIGHT RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS/LOW SEAS ACROSS THE BASIN. A WEAK SFC TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE FAR WEST GULF PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS MAINLY WEST OF 92W. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING SUPPORTED BY VERY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S THROUGH W/CENTRAL TEXAS. A STATIONARY FRONT HUNG UP ALONG THE NRN GULF COAST WITH A 1014 MB SFC LOW ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 30N85W. A SFC TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 28N87W. A MOSAIC RADAR LOOP OVER THE SE U.S. SHOWS SOME SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT PARTICULARLY OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND JUST OFF THE SE U.S. NEAR THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WITH PATCHES OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. MODELS SUGGEST LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE TODAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... HURRICANE FELIX REMAINS THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CURRENTLY...WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE ABC ISLANDS AND JAMAICA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FELIX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS OF VENEZUELA AND THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES ISLANDS OF ARUBA...BONAIRE AND CURACAO. FOR MORE DETAILS ON FELIX REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE. A TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS FAIRLY ACTIVE ALONG 80W/81W. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...OUTER RAINBANDS OF FELIX ARE REACHING THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND ST. CROIX. THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR IS SHOWING THIS ACTIVITY. DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS ST. CROIX REPORTED HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS OF 17 KT. MID TO UPPER RIDGING N OF FELIX IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND W STEERING FELIX TO THE W OR WNW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ACROSS THE CARIB SEA. AN INVERTED TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER N FLORIDA AND SE GEORGIA GENERATING SCATTRED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. A WEAK SFC TROUGH CLIPS THE FORECAST AREA ALONG 30N WEST OF 70W. A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS IS WITHIN 80 NM AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. FURTHER EAST THERE IS ANOTHER SFC TROUGH TILTED ALONG 30N50W 22N54W. THIS TROUGH...REFLECTION OF AN UPPER LOW MENTIONED BELOW IS ALSO PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS. A WEAK SFC RIDGE ANCHORED ON A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N47W DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN PRODUCING MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE AREA E OF 55W. LIGHT WINDS ARE ALSO FOUND OVER MOST OF THE REGION W OF 55W AROUND A RIDGE AXIS GENERALLY ALONG 26N...EXCEPT SLIGHTLY STRONGER ELY WINDS CLOSER TO THE CARIBBEAN S OF 22N BETWEEN 60W-73W IN RESPONSE TO THE GRADIENT N OF FELIX. ALOFT...AN UPPER HIGH/TROUGH/HIGH PATTERN DOMINATES THE DISCUSSION AREA. AN UPPER HIGH IS NEAR 26N67W COVERING THE WESTERN ATLC. AN UPPER LOW IS NEAR 26N53W. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS RELATIVELY QUIET DOMINATED BY A STRONG MID TO UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR 23N30W. STRONG E TO SE FLOW ON THE SW SIDE OF THIS HIGH IS SHEARING THE LARGE TROPICAL WAVE AND AREA OF LOW PRES IN THE E ATLC. $$ GR