000 AXNT20 KNHC 310519 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI AUG 31 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W S OF 21N DRIFTING W WITH A 1011 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 14.5N. BROAD ELONGATED LOW/MID LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION COVERING THE AREA FROM 11N-19N BETWEEN 25W-36W WITH SEVERAL POSSIBLE ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 29W-32W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W/54W S OF 16W MOVING W 15 KT WITH A 1010 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 11N. BROAD BUT LOW AMPLITUDE LOW/MID LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION COVERS THE AREA FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 51W-58W. THIS WAVE/LOW HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE FROM 10N51W TO 13N57W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W/78W S OF 23N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. NARROW INVERTED-V CURVATURE REMAINS WEAK IN THE CARIBBEAN AND IS PRODUCING LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY DUE TO THE RATHER DRY STABLE AIR. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 15N16W 15N27W 9N36W 11N51W 11N63W. IN ADDITION TO SHOWERS/CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE ALONG THE COAST OF SW AFRICA FROM 3N-11N BETWEEN 9W-16W AND FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 37W-51W. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA SW TO THE MEXICAN COAST BETWEEN TAMPICO AND VERACRUZ. BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM S MEXICO ACROSS THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF TO OVER GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAKENING 1011 MB LOW IS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR VERACRUZ DRIFTING INLAND OVER MEXICO...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS INLAND OVER THE SE US FROM E TENNESSEE TO E TEXAS...AND A WEAK 1016 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N91W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE S GULF S OF 23N W OF 88W TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN AND MEXICO. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO THE N AND E GULF COAST WITHIN 60 NM FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO PORT ARTHUR TEXAS. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS CLEAR TONIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 85W. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N78W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S TO OVER W PANAMA. AN UPPER HIGH IS IN THE SE CARIBBEAN ALONG THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 12N66W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE N PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE GULF OF GONAVE AND THE S PENINSULA OF HAITI. MOSTLY DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN N OF 13N E OF 65W BROUGHT IN ON MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS CLEAR TONIGHT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 77W WITH A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH 32N72W S TO OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 23N75W. A WEAK 1010 MB LOW IS INT HE W ATLC NEAR 30N75W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING S TO OVER THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 24N78W. AN UPPER HIGH IS JUST TO THE E NEAR 27N68W GIVING THE AREA ENOUGH DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 25N BETWEEN 60W-74W. BROAD UPPER LOW/HIGH CENTERED NEAR 21N50W AND 23N29W RESPECTIVELY. THESE FEATURES ARE RATHER BENIGN AND COUPLED WITH THE DRY STABLE AIR THAT COVERS THE ATLC E OF 60W WITH A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ALSO COVERING THE ATLC E OF 60W GIVES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS. $$ WALLACE