000 AXNT20 KNHC 280527 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED AUG 28 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W S OF 17W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT WITH A 1011 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 9N. BROAD LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 75/90 OF THE LOW. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 34W-46W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. NARROW LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS CLEARLY DEFINED WITH THE WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 10N56W ACROSS THE ISLANDS TO 14N61W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W S OF 22N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A LOW/MID LEVEL LOW ROTATION IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 13N BUT STILL NO INDICATION OF A SURFACE LOW. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 79W-84W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 94W/95W S OF 22N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WELL DEFINED INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY/CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER MEXICO AND IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 9N24W 10N33W 7N48W 9N58W. IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES... CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-14N E OF 21W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA AND WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 8N21W TO 5N31W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 32W-45W. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER HIGH COVERS THE W GULF W OF 90W GENERATING ENOUGH DIFFLUENCE TO ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE INLAND AND WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF S MEXICO. AN UPPER HIGH IS INLAND OVER E GEORGIA COVERING THE NE GULF FORCING THE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE GULF WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST FROM 25N-28N AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE N GULF COAST FROM PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THE UPPER LOW IN THE W CARIBBEAN CLIPS THE SE GULF WITH SIMILAR ACTIVITY IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND YUCATAN CHANNEL. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 19N84W COVERING THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 81W TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 17N W OF 81W AND ENHANCING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 82W. A BROAD UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED IN THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N69W AND COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER RIDGE IS A LOW/MID LEVEL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 82W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER HIGH IS JUST INLAND OVER E GEORGIA WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NE OUT OF THE REGION. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 27N63W EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W. A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 31N37W ALONG 29N43W 31N53W TO NEAR 25N67W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE UPPER LOW. A BROAD UPPER HIGH IS ANCHORED INT HE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 23N51W WITH DRY STABLE AIR COVERING THE AREA E OF 55W COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC AND A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE ATLC COUPLES TO GIVE THE MOST OF THE ATLC FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS. $$ WALLACE