000 AXNT20 KNHC 271816 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON AUG 27 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W S OF 16W MOVING W 10-15 KT. LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY JUST N OF THE ITCZ. A 1012 MB LOW IS THUS PUT AT 10.5N35W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 30W-40W. FURTHER N...AN AREA OF DRY AIR/ AFRICAN DUST IS OVER THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE N OF 15N. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W/58W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A LOW LEVEL SWIRL IS NOTED ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N58W. LEADING EDGE CONVECTION IS SEEN OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 60W-63W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 55W-61W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79 S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A LOW/MID LEVEL LOW ROTATION IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR 13N79W. A 1008 MB LOW IS PLACED ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 11N79W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 78W-81W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 79W-81W. E OF THE WAVE AXIS A LINE OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 71W-79W MOVING NW. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 92W S OF 22N MOVING W 10-15 KT. CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE OVER THE E PACIFIC REGION. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 10N22W 10N35W 7N45W 8N60W. IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES... WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 14W-20W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FURTHER N FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 15W-18W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 28W-40W...AND FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 42W-55W. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. SEE ABOVE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG NE MEXICO AND THE NW GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 29N95W 26N97W 22N99W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 95W-100W. ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 27N82W 24N86W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 85W-88W. ALL WINDS NOTED IN THE GULF ARE IN THE 5-10 KT RANGE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 23N98W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER S GEORGIA NEAR 31N83W. EXPECT THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE WESTERN GULF W OF 88W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND ANOTHER IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES. SEE ABOVE. TRADEWINDS ARE MOSTLY 10-15 KT WITH SOME 20 KT WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AT 19N83W. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN SEA E OF 70W. EXPECT THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 74W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1015 MB LOW IS OVER WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 28N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE LOW. A TROUGH EXTENDS SW TO 22N64W. A 1022 MB HIGH IS FURTHER E NEAR 26N51W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 31N36W 28N42W 30N53W 28N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 40W-43W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N61W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 22N48W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC E OF 25W. $$ FORMOSA