000 AXNT20 KNHC 251809 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT AUG 25 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD TURNING IN THE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 20W-27W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W S OF 14N MOVING W 10 KT. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED WITH LOW LEVEL TURNING CLEARLY APPARENT ON VIS IMAGES...THOUGH STILL WELL EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ARE CONFINED TO THE ITCZ FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 44W-54W. TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE W CARIBBEAN ALONG 82W S OF 18N MOVING W 15 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BIT OF CURVATURE IN THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 81W-83W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 6N-15N BETWEEN 78W-84W. THE NRN PORTION OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 95W S OF 24N MOVING W 15 KT. A 1009 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 20N95W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 91W-96W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 9N30W 10N50W 10N60W. BESIDES FOR THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES... ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 8W-14W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 30W-44W. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER ALABAMA NEAR 33N86W PRODUCING 5-10 KT EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 83W-87W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ALONG 26N79W 23N82W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER S FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 79W-82W. FURTHER W...A TROPICAL WAVE AND EMBEDDED 1010 MB LOW IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SEE ABOVE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 27N89W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N94W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS MOST OF THE GULF. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE. FURTHER E...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 67W-70W. FURTHER N...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 67W-74W. TRADEWINDS ARE MOSTLY 10-15 KT THROUGHOUT THE SEA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS OVER BELIZE NEAR 17N88W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N71W. EXPECT CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN S OF 14N AND OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER N FLORIDA AND THE COAST OF GEORGIA FROM 32N79W 29N82W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 78W-82W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N38W 28N44W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 28N52W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES W ALONG 24N58W 26N64W 30N67W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ALONG 32N27W 25N35W TO A 1016 MB HIGH NEAR 23N45W...AND CONTINUES W TO 22N51W. FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS DOMINATE THE AREA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 70W-80W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 23N57W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 20N43W. $$ FORMOSA