000 AXNT20 KNHC 241754 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI AUG 24 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1730 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W/23W S OF 16 KT. THE WAVE PASSAGE WAS EVIDENT IN THE DAKAR RAOB DATA AROUND 22/1200 UTC...WHICH SUGGESTS THE WAVE IS MOVING W JUST UNDER 10 KT. THE WAVE IS OVERALL DIFFICULT TO LOCATE WITH CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...THE WAVE AXIS IS EVIDENT IN METSAT-9 LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUD DRIFT WINDS. THIS...ALONG WITH THE SURGE OF MOISTURE NOTED IN THE UW-CIMSS TPW PRODUCT...WERE THE MAIN TOOLS USED IN PLACING THE WAVE AXIS. THERE IS A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION E OF THE AXIS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 18W-21W...BUT WITH THE PERSISTENT ELY SHEAR OVER THE AREA IT IS HARD TO SAY THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47/48W S OF 14N MOVING 10-15 KT. LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 44W-51W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 150NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS S OF 11N. THERE CONTINUES TO BE WHAT APPEARS TO BE A HIGHER AMPLITUDE INVERTED V PATTERN JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...BUT THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE IS A LITTLE BLURRY AND COULD BE MORE IN RESPONSE TO THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW NEAR 21N56W...IN ADDITION TO CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN THE PAIR OF WEAK ATLC SFC HIGHS ANALYZED ON TODAY'S 1200 UTC MAP. TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ALONG 71W WAS RELOCATED TO 76W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. THE RELOCATION WAS PRIMARILY BASED ON QUICK WWD MOVING SURGE OF MOISTURE NOTED IN THE UW-CIMSS TPW PRODUCT...WHICH WERE THE SHOWERS/TSTMS NOTED MOVING THROUGH THE ABC ISLANDS AROUND THIS TIME YESTERDAY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 11N BETWEEN 76W-81W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W S OF 23N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE TODAY BUT MOISTURE HAS INCREASED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AND SRN GULF OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS NOTED FROM 17N-26N BETWEEN 83W-87W...WHICH ARE ALSO BEING SUPPORTED BY THE UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDDLE GULF NEAR 25N87W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 9N20W 7N25W 9N46W 10N65W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS AFFECTING TRINIDAD...TOBAGO...AND ADJACENT WATERS FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 57W-64W. OUTSIDE OF THIS ACTIVITY AND THAT DESCRIBED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...THE AXIS IS PRETTY QUIET. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE NRN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 87W IS OVER THE S CENTRAL GULF AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. A WEAK SFC TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 24N96W 19N93W. AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS NE FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO TO JUST OFF THE S TEXAS COAST. THESE FEATURES ARE SUPPORTING A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR 24N95W. THE DOMINANT UPPER FEATURE IS THE UPPER LOW SPINNING NEAR 25N87W THAT HAS SCATTERED TSTMS FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO 28N BETWEEN 84W-88W. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE ALSO NOTED ALONG AND S OF THE LOUISIANA COAST N OF 25N BETWEEN 91W-94W. WEAK SFC RIDGING WILL PERSIST ALONG 30N OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS WEAK TROUGHING MEANDERS IN THE SW PORTION. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE BASIN IS IN THE SW CARIB OFF THE COAST OF PANAMA/COLOMBIA...WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION S OF 11N BETWEEN 75W-81W. IN ADDITION TO THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING SUPPORTED BY SPEED CONVERGENCE DOWNSTREAM FROM THE STRONGER TRADES OFF THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA. AN UPPER HIGH HAS BUILD OVER CENTRAL CUBA AND DOMINATES THE WRN CARIB...WHILE AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE ERN PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN. THIS TROUGHING IN ADDITION TO SOME WEAK SFC TROUGHING IN THE VICINITY IS SUPPORTING THE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AFFECTING PUERTO RICO AND NRN CARIB N OF 16N BETWEEN 64W-68W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS OVER THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN NEAR THE SRN WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND IN THE VICINITY OF GUADELOUPE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BUNCH OF WEAK SFC FEATURES ARE AFFECTING THE ATLC TODAY. THE FIRST OF THESE FEATURES IS THE DISSIPATING 1015 MB LOW JUST OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL FLORIDA...WHICH APPEARS TO BE OPENING UP INTO A TROUGH AND DRIFTING N. A SMALL CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IS NEAR 30N79W. A SFC TROUGH IS ALONG 28N72W 21N74W THAT HAS SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS MOVING THROUGH THE SRN BAHAMAS. A 1018 MB HIGH IS NEAR 26N66W WITH A 1016 MB HIGH NEAR 24N44W. THE HIGHS HAVE MOVED S OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO THE COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA FROM A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 32N46W...CONTINUES SW TO 27N57W...THEN NW TO 32N66W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE GENERALLY WITHIN 60 NM OF THIS BOUNDARY. THIS AFTERNOONS VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS ANOTHER LOW MAY BE FORMING ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 28N54W. THE FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARP UPPER TROUGH ALONG 50W N OF 27N. TYPICAL UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES THE E ATLC OUT TO NEAR 50W. SFC RIDGING ALSO DOMINATES THE ERN ATLC...S OF A 1032 MB HIGH OFF OF WRN EUROPE. THESE FEATURES ARE PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS N OF 15N E OF 40W. $$ WILLIS