000 AXNT20 KNHC 240504 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI AUG 24 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE WAS INTRODUCED ALONG 20W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT BASED ON UPPER AIR DATA FROM DAKAR. WEAK LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W S OF 14N MOVING 10-15 KT. LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH WEAK INVERTED-V CURVATURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W S OF 17N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE HAS A HINT OF AN INVERTED-V CURVATURE DUE TO THE DRY STABLE AIR OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 69W-73W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W S OF 24N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE HAS SLOWED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 79W-82W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N16W 10N30W 9N34W 10N48W 9N56W 10N61W. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF 7N FROM 31W-52W. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE TO SE LOUISIANA IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM NW MEXICO ACROSS TEXAS TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N88W OVER THE E GULF TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR TAMPA. DRY SOMEWHAT STABLE AIR DOMINATES MUCH OF THE GULF IN THE WAKE OF DEAN WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS OF 24N93W...WITHIN 60 NM OF 23.5N FROM 83W-87W...AND MOVING OFF THE N GULF COAST N OF 28N FROM 87W-89W. OTHERWISE...THE GULF REMAINS CLEAR TONIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER JAMAICA DOMINATING THE CARIBBEAN W OF 65W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN BETWEEN THE UPPER HIGH IN THE CARIBBEAN AND THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF 82W TO OVER CUBA AND THE YUCATAN. THIS IS ALSO GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE N CARIBBEAN N OF 16N FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO E CUBA. DRY SOMEWHAT STABLE AIR DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER HIGH OVER JAMAICA OVER THE W ATLC S OF 27N FROM 68W-80W. A WEAK 1014 MB SURFACE...PREVIOUSLY PART OF A TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS CENTERED JUST N OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 28N78W. ALL THIS IS GENERATING WIDE SPREAD CLOUDINESS AND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SW OF A LINE FROM 29N78W TO 23N71W INCLUDING ALL OF THE BAHAMAS. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH DIPS INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 27N FROM 50W-65W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION FROM A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 32N51W SW TO 29N58W THEN NW ACROSS BERMUDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 29N FROM 49W-53W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY E OF 60W. A BENIGN UPPER LOW/HIGH ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC WHILE A TYPICAL UPPER RIDGING EXTENDS E FROM AFRICA S OF 24N E OF 30W. A PAIR OF UPPER LOWS ARE N OF 32N COVERING THE NE ATLC E OF 40W. DRY STABLE CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC. $$ WALLACE