000 AXNT20 KNHC 230526 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU AUG 23 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM DEAN WAS DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT 23/0300 UTC AND CENTERED NEAR 20.5N 100.0W WHICH IS INLAND OVER OVER CENTRAL MEXICO ABOUT 83 NM NW OF MEXICO CITY AT 23/0300 UTC MOVING W AT 18 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. THIS WAS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOW INLAND OVER MEXICO. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE WAS INTRODUCED ALONG 39W/40W S OF 13N MOVING NEAR 15 KT BASED ON SSMI DERIVED DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS IS A LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W S OF 22N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE HAS A WELL DEFINED INVERTED-V CURVATURE ESPECIALLY N OF 16N. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N-23N BETWEEN 57W-65W AND IN THE E CARIBBEAN S OF 15N FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO 66W. TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 28N74W ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND CUBA NEAR 22N77W TO PANAMA NEAR 9N78W MOVING W 15-20 KT. VERY BROAD HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH A WELL DEFINED INVERTED-V CURVATURE IN THE W ATLC. WAVE IS BENEATH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WITH ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THEM RATHER THAN THE WAVE ITSELF. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N16W 10N26W 12N38W 7N50W 10N60W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 22W-37W AND FROM 12N-16N E OF 20W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... CLEAR SKIES AND MODERATE/STRONG E TO SE SURFACE WINDS REMAIN ACROSS THE W GULF TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF DEAN. AN UPPER HIGH NEAR THE REMNANTS OF DEAN EXTENDS AN UPPER RIDGE N OVER CENTRAL MEXICO TO OVER TEXAS TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N W OF 92W. THE GULF IS UNDER EASTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW IN THE N CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE E GULF S OF 27N E OF 85W. OTHERWISE...THE GULF IS CLEAR TONIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER LOW DOMINATES THE W CARIBBEAN CENTERED BETWEEN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND CUBA NEAR 20N81W EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH NE INTO THE W ATLC WITH A WEAKER UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 20N BETWEEN 77W-86W TO OVER CUBA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS UPPER LOW IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN PRODUCING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE FROM COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA NEAR 11N84W TO CUBA NEAR 21N78W INCLUDING JAMAICA. A WEAK UPPER HIGH IS JUST S OF HAITI GIVING THE E CARIBBEAN EASTERLY UPPER FLOW E OF 68W CLEARING THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER LOW IN THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N79W TO 29N71W COVERING THE W ATLC AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-29N W OF 77W TO OVER FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA FROM 71W-78W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS BENEATH THIS UPPER TROUGH. AND UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER HIGH JUST S OF HAITI NE TO 25N66W ENHANCING SIMILAR ACTIVITY S OF 24N TO OVER PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 65W-70W. A BENIGN UPPER LOW/HIGH/LOW ARE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WHILE A TYPICAL UPPER RIDGING EXTENDS E FROM AFRICA OUT TO 30W. LARGE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE ATLC TO ACROSS THE SE US AND N GULF OF MEXICO WITH A WEAK 1021 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 29N54W. ALL OF THIS IS PRODUCING ABUNDANT STABLE CONDITIONS AND MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE ATLC WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES. $$ WALLACE