000 AXNT20 KNHC 220552 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED AUG 22 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... HURRICANE DEAN IS CENTERED NEAR 20.1N 94.0W...OR 135 NM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO AT 22/0600 UTC MOVING WNW AT 17 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. HURRICANE DEAN IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE WITH A LARGE RAGGED EYE AND COULD STRENGTHEN AGAIN BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL OVER MEXICO LATE TODAY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE W SEMICIRCLE AND SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER INT HE E SEMICIRCLE. OUTER RAINBANDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE GULF S OF 27N W OF 87W TO THE COAST OF MEXICO AND SE TEXAS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 6N53W TO 20N56W MOVING W 15-20 KT. ALTHOUGH THIS WAVE HAS A WELL DEFINED INVERTED-V CURVATURE TO A RATHER HIGH AMPLITUDE THERE IS NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W/71W S OF 30N MOVING W 15-20 KT. VERY BROAD HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH A WELL DEFINED INVERTED-V CURVATURE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE FROM 28N70W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N75W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N63W TO 27N65W. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IN THE CARIBBEAN. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N13W 9N21W 11N31W 9N43W 9N58W 11N64W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 17W-26W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 27W-55W. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE MAIN FOCUS THIS EVENING REMAINS HURRICANE DEAN THAT IS IN THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN UPPER IS N OF HURRICANE DEAN EXTENDING AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO SW LOUISIANA ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY OF THE OUTER RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED DEAN. A WEAK UPPER HIGH IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA TO OVER THE E GULF GIVING THE AREA MOSTLY DRY STABLE AIR. A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE SW COAST OF FLORIDA WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 26N84W. OTHERWISE...THE NE GULF IS CLEAR TONIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... IN THE WAKE OF DEAN...THE WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH WITH THE SEAS SUBSIDING OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A BROAD UPPER LOW DOMINATES MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN CENTERED BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA NEAR 18N76W EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH NNE OVER THE W ATLC WITH A WEAKER UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING WSW TO NEAR 16N81W. THIS UPPER LOW IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N W OF 72W WITH SOME MID LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM PANAMA NEAR 10N80W TO NEAR 14N74W. THE E CARIBBEAN REMAINS CLEAR TONIGHT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WEAK UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 30N79W COVERING THE AREA W OF 75W AND EXTENDING INTO THE E GULF OF MEXICO. DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE FAR W ATLC W OF 76W WITH SOME LOW LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS BROUGHT IN BY MODERATE EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS TO OVER S FLORIDA. BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER LOW JUST IN THE N CARIBBEAN ACROSS HAITI TO NEAR 28N67W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS BENEATH THIS UPPER TROUGH ENHANCING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. A BENIGN UPPER HIGH/LOW ARE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WHILE A TYPICAL UPPER RIDGING EXTENDS E FROM AFRICA OUT TO 30W. LARGE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE ATLC TO ACROSS THE SE US AND N GULF OF MEXICO WITH A WEAK 1026 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 31N47W. ALL OF THIS IS PRODUCING ABUNDANT STABLE CONDITIONS AND MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE ATLC WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. $$ WALLACE