000 AXNT20 KNHC 210614 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE DEAN AT 21/0600 UTC IS NEAR 18.5N 86.8W...OR 87 NM/160 KM EAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO... AND 226 NM/420 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAMPECHE MEXICO. HURRICANE DEAN IS MOVING WEST 17 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 910 MB. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE DEAN IS BEARING DOWN ON THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT THIS MOMENT. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 85W AND 88W... REACHING LAND IN MEXICO. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE IN THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA NORTH OF 20N EAST OF 89W...AND IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FROM 21N TO 22N BETWEEN THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE IN PARTS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND EL SALVADOR IN A BAND AWAY FROM THE CENTER FROM 12.5N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 87.5W AND 90W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE SOUTH OF JAMAICA FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29N61W 22N63W 18N63W...AND SOUTH OF 18N ALONG 63W/64W. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN PHASE WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE ELONGATED PUERTO RICO CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCH FROM THE WATERS JUST WEST OF MARTINIQUE/ ST.LUCIA SOUTHWESTWARD TO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA...IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W...AND FROM 18N TO 27N BETWEEN 52W AND 67W. ...THE ITCZ... FROM THE AFRICA COAST NEAR 12N16W TO 11N30W 9N48W 15N60W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 42W AND 44W...AND FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 44W AND 46W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 2N TO 14N BETWEEN 30W AND 55W. THE PRECIPITATION FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W ALSO IS EAST OF THE 63W/64W TROPICAL WAVE...AND PART OF THE ITCZ PRECIPITATION. DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... HURRICANE DEAN IS APPROACHING THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW EASILY REACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS NOW IS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST NEAR 27N97W. THE ORIENTATION OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS CYCLONIC CENTER IS NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST...FROM SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA TO THE TEXAS COAST TO COASTAL MEXICO NEAR 20N98W. THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THIS MORNING AND FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... AND EVENTUALLY THE REST OF MEXICO AS HURRICANE DEAN CONTINUES ITS COURSE. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE DEAN IS HEADING TO THE SOUTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AT THIS MOMENT. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA NORTH OF 13N WEST OF 80W... IN CENTRAL AMERICA NORTH OF NICARAGUA...AND THE EASTERN HALF OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN ELONGATED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR NORTH CENTRAL PUERTO RICO. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 12N TO 24N BETWEEN 66W AND 77W. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM HURRICANE DEAN PASSES THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29N61W 22N63W 18N63W...AND SOUTH OF 18N ALONG 63W/64W. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN PHASE WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE ELONGATED PUERTO RICO CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCH FROM THE WATERS JUST WEST OF MARTINIQUE/ST.LUCIA SOUTHWESTWARD TO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA...IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W...AND FROM 18N TO 27N BETWEEN 52W AND 67W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 30N75W STILL IS GUIDING THE DIRECTION OF HURRICANE DEAN. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE PUERTO RICO MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER IS CUTTING INTO THE AREA ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 30N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W ARE RELATED TO THE CYCLONIC CENTER AND THE 63W/64W TROPICAL WAVE. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 33N33W TO 27N35W AND 21N38W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS WITHIN 500 NM TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 35N41W TO A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 31N50W TO 32N62W 31N74W AND EVENTUALLY TO SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA. $$ MT