000 AXNT20 KNHC 190611 CCA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN AUG 19 2007 ...CORRECTION MADE FOR DATE... TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... AS OF 19/0600 UTC THE EYE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED NEAR NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.6 WEST OR ABOUT 295 MILES...480 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 155 MILES...245 KM...SOUTH OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI. DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTH-WEST NEAR 15 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 155 KT...THIS MAKES DEAN A STRONG CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 918 MB. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALL INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS POWERFUL HURRICANE. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR THE MOST RECENT WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. DEAN REMAINS VERY IMPRESSIVE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH A WELL-DEFINED EYE AND SYMMETRIC SIGNATURE TO IT'S EYEWALL ...RAINBANDS AND OUTFLOW. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION...IN SPIRAL BANDS...IS ELSEWHERE FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN 69W-74W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A VERY LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS REPOSITIONED ALONG 45W S OF 21N MOVING W 20 KT. A DISTINCT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOTED NEAR 12N45W THAT WAS BETWEEN TWO FORMERLY TRACKED TROPICAL WAVES. BOTH WAVES WERE DROPPED AND A NEW MEDIAN WAVE WAS CREATED. A VERY BROAD ELONGATED AREA OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING NOW EXTENDS BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 36W-43W. PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NRN PART OF THE WAVE FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 43W-50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 51W-54W. TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W CARIB ALONG 88W S OF 21N MOVING W 15-20 KT. A WEAK INVERTED V-SHAPE IS SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE NORTHERN PART OF THE WAVE IS BEING MASKED HOWEVER BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 87W-89W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 10N20W 11N30W 13N40W 10N50W 7N60W. BESIDES FOR THE ACTIVITY MENTIONED ABOVE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 23W-27W. DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 30N. THUS SURFACE WINDS ARE MOSTLY FROM THE SE AT 10-15 KT. A PATCH OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR FROM 30N-31N BETWEEN 85W-86W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 91W-93W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO IS VOID OF CONVECTION. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE ERN GULF NEAR 25N86W MOVING W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS BETWEEN 80W-94W. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER THE WRN GULF PRODUCING NLY FLOW W OF 94W. ALL EYES ARE ON HURRICANE DEAN WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE W/SW PORTION OF THE GULF ON TUE NIGHT. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... ATTENTION REMAINS FOCUSED ON POWERFUL CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE DEAN. DEAN WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH TUE NIGHT. FOR DETAILS REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALSO TRAVERSING CENTRAL AMERICA WITH LIMITED CONVECTION. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF NRN VENEZUELA FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 68W-70W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA N OF 18N AND W OF 80W. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM DEAN IS NOW NOTED E OF 80W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A LARGE SCALE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH W OF THE AZORES AT 40N35W PRODUCING WIDESPREAD FAIR WEATHER AND MODERATE TRADES E OF 60W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 25N AND W OF 70W THAT IS PUSHING S AND WILL EFFECT THE FUTURE TRACK OF DEAN. AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N56W MOVING W. LIGHTNING DATA HAS BEEN DEPICTING A FEW ISOLATED TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE FROM 27N-34N BETWEEN 50W-57W. UPPER RIDGING IS OVER THE ERN ATLANTIC E OF 40W. $$ FORMOSA