000 AXNT20 KNHC 180610 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT AUG 18 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN AT 18/0300 UTC WAS NEAR THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 65.9 WEST OR ABOUT 755 MILES...1210 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 240 MILES...390 KM ...SOUTH OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. DEAN IS MOVING WEST 16 KT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS NEAR 125 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 937 MB. EYE DIAMETER IS 10 NM. DEAN IS A CATEGORY FOUR MAJOR HURRICANE. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC OR THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS INCLUDING THE MOST RECENT WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. ALL INTERESTS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 65W-67W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 63W-68W. A SRN FEEDER BAND HAS SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 61W-63W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE E ATLC ALONG 33W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A BROAD ENVELOPE OF CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE SURROUNDING LOW TO MID CLOUD FIELD...ESPECIALLY FROM 12N-19N BETWEEN 28W-37W. HOWEVER...DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS MINIMAL NEAR THIS CIRCULATION WITH ONLY ONE SMALL CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED NEAR 16N34W. A MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THE SRN PORTION OF THE AXIS FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 25W-38W...WHICH MAY BE MORE ASSOCIATED WITH SPEED CONVERGENCE S OF THE ITCZ. AN ATLC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W/46W SOUTH OF 20N. THIS WAVE IS GENERALLY MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT...BUT THE MAIN AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING HAS HAD A SW COMPONENT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE WAVE...AND THIS SW MOTION...SHOWS UP WELL IN THE 48 HR ANIMATION OF THE UW-CIMSS SSMI/AMSRE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT. REGARDLESS...DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS MINIMAL NEAR THE WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 43W-50W. A WRN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W/82W SOUTH OF 19N MOVING WEST 20-25 KT. AN INVERTED V PATTERN REMAINS EVIDENT WITH THIS WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS. CLOUD TOPS OVER THIS ACTIVITY ARE BEING SHEARED TO THE NE WITH UPPER SW FLOW AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 15N16W 15N30W 16N33W 11N40W 13N46W 8N50W 13N60W. OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION ALREADY DESCRIBED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES AND HURRICANE DEAN...DEEP CONVECTION IS MINIMAL NEAR THE ITCZ TONIGHT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG ACTIVITY IS INLAND OVER AFRICA FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 8W-12W...WHICH SEEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE. DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE RIDGE IS STARTING TO NUDGE OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER S GEORGIA...S ALABAMA ...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE MOVING S. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 29N-33N BETWEEN 82W-87W. FURTHER W...T.D. ERIN CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER INLAND OVER TEXAS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 29N-33N BETWEEN 98W-102W. SURFACE WINDS OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ARE FROM THE E TO SE AT 15 KT WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS NEAR 32N97W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 25N. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER S FLORIDA NEAR 26N79W MOVING W . CYCLONIC FLOW IS E OF 85W. EXPECT HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TUE THROUGH THU AS HURRICANE DEAN MOVES FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN TO WRN GULF OF MEXICO. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... POWERFUL CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE DEAN IS OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. DEAN WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALSO OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE. AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 74W-78W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER WRN HONDURAS AND EL SALVADOR FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 87W-90W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS ...A TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA N OF 15N AND W OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 12N78W. IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS NOTED WITH HURRICANE DEAN E OF 70W. EXPECT...HURRICANE DEAN TO MOVE W OVER THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A LARGE SCALE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH OVER THE AZORES AT 39N28W. THIS IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD FAIR WEATHER AND MODERATE TRADES E OF 60W. E/NE WINDS ARE A LITTLE STRONGER AS DENOTED BY A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 18N-27N BETWEEN 25W-41W. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE N WITH THE LARGE TROPICAL WAVE TO ITS S ALONG 32W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LOW SPINNING NEAR S FLORIDA. LIFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT WATERS S OF 28N W OF 72W. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE W INTO THE ERN GULF BY TOMORROW EVENING. UPPER RIDGING IS TO THE E OF THE UPPER LOW WHICH IS STEERING DEAN WWD. ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS NEAR 27N51W. LIGHTNING DATA HAS BEEN DEPICTING A FEW ISOLATED TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE FROM 27N-32N BETWEEN 47W-52W. UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING W FROM AFRICA GENERALLY DOMINATES THE ERN ATLC. $$ FORMOSA