000 AXNT20 KNHC 161818 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT THU AUG 16 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM ERIN MADE LANDFALL AROUND 1200 UTC THIS MORNING NEAR LAMAR TEXAS...WHICH IS ABOUT 22 NM/40 KM NORTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. ERIN EVENTUALLY WAS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AFTER ITS LANDFALL. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 22N TO 23N BETWEEN 93W AND 94W...FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN 92W AND 94W...AND NORTH OF 27N TO THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS BETWEEN 92W AND 95W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ON LAND IN THE AREA OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEXAS COASTS FROM 29N TO 31N BETWEEN 94W AND 96W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO INLAND FROM 28N TO 30N BETWEEN 97W AND 99W. ERIN IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT5 AND WMO HEADER WTNT35 KWNH...BEGINNING AT 400 PM CDT. THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN AT 16/1800 UTC WAS NEAR 13.8N 55.5W OR ABOUT 240 NM/440 KM EAST OF BARBADOS...AND ABOUT 320 NM/ 590 KM EAST OF MARTINIQUE. HURRICANE DEAN WAS MOVING WEST 20 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WERE NEAR 80 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB. DEAN IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC OR THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 53W AND 58W. SIMILAR PRECIPITATION IS IN A SMALL BAND IN FRONT OF HURRICANE DEAN FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 57W AND 59W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE FROM 8N TO 18N BETWEEN 49W AND 60W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A NEW TROPICAL WAVE WAS INTRODUCED TO THE 16/1200 UTC SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS ALONG 17W SOUTH OF 21N NEAR THE AFRICA COAST. BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING IS TAKING PLACE IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS PRESENT. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W/36W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 12.5N TO 15.5N BETWEEN 37W AND 39W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 67W AND 70W. ...THE ITCZ... 10N14W 8N20W 7N32W 8N37W 12N48W 11N56W 10N62W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 11N15W 7N23W 3N29W...WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 6N30W 8N37W 10N43W...AND FROM 5.5N TO 6.5N BETWEEN 43W AND 44W. DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALREADY MOVED INLAND. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 22N TO 23N BETWEEN 93W AND 94W...FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN 92W AND 94W...AND NORTH OF 27N TO THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS BETWEEN 92W AND 95W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ON LAND IN THE AREA OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEXAS COASTS FROM 29N TO 31N BETWEEN 94W AND 96W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO INLAND FROM 28N TO 30N BETWEEN 97W AND 99W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM A 28N74W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...CROSSES OVER THE BAHAMAS TO WESTERN CUBA...AND INTO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS ON TOP OF WHAT REMAINS OF T.D. ERIN. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE SOUTH OF 27N BETWEEN 84W AND 90W IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE 65W TROPICAL WAVE BRINGS SOME ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS WITH IT. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF HURRICANE DEAN. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE 28N74W ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CENTER WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...BY PASSING THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS SEPARATE FROM THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW RELATED TO T.D. ERIN... MOVES FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND IT SPILLS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF 11N WEST OF 77W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE 28N74W CENTER COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 65W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N70W TO 27N75W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 66W AND 69W...ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE 28N74W CENTER. A SECOND AND EQUALLY WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 29N47W IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. CYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 40W AND 56W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND PART SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS FROM 32N15W TO 29N25W... TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER 27N33W TO 20N37W 16N41W TO ANOTHER CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 12N38W. $$ MT