000 AXNT20 KNHC 160526 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU AUG 16 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0415 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM ERIN IS CENTERED NEAR 26.5N 95.7W AT 16/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 120 NM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS OR 175 NM SSW OF GALVESTON TEXAS MOVING WNW AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC OR THE INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 26.5N-29.5N BETWEEN 93.5W-97W INCLUDING THE COASTAL AREA OF TEXAS. ERIN IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL LATER TODAY HOWEVER HEAVY RAINS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES ARE ALREADY ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS OF TEXAS. RAIN AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. TROPICAL STORM DEAN IS CENTERED NEAR 13.1N 50.2W AT 16/0300 UTC MOVING W AT 20 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC OR THE INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 FOR MORE DETAILS. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH DEAN IS NO LONGER DISPLACED INDICATING THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT HAS WEAKENED AND A BANDING FEATURE ALSO INDICATES THAT DEAN IS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 48W-53W. DEAN CONTINUES TO MOVE RATHER QUICKLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE. DEAN IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W/32W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT WITH A WEAK 1011 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 14N. BROAD LOW/MID LEVEL ROTATION REMAINS MOSTLY TO THE W OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 31W-35W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 62W S OF 18N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WEAK BUT WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 61W-65W INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N16W 9N34W 14N46W THEN ALONG 10N52W 8N60W. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 3N30W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 10N14W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 57W-61W. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE MAIN FOCUS AGAIN TONIGHT IS TROPICAL STORM ERIN APPROACHING THE COAST OF TEXAS...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN UPPER HIGH REMAINS NEAR ERIN WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF HEAVY SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS S OF 26N BETWEEN 83W-93W TO OVER CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC AND ACROSS FLORIDA PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE W FLORIDA COAST FROM FORT MYERS TO OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 13N W OF 75W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 20N W OF 82W. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC DIPS S OVER E CUBA AND HAITI GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N-20 BETWEEN 68W-77W. ALTHOUGH THE ITCZ AXIS CROSSES THE N PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION IT IS ONLY GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF COLOMBIA. FOR THE MOST PART...DRY STABLE AIR DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN BRINGING CLEAR SKIES TO THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 65W ACROSS FLORIDA WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N72W. A WEAK REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1016 MB LOW CENTERED SW OF BERMUDA NEAR 30N67W TO NEAR 24N71W GENERATING WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 24N-32N BETWEEN 62W-72W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY RATHER BENIGN UPPER FEATURES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TROPICAL STORM DEAN. DRY STABLE AIR AND A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N45W GIVING THE ATLC FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS AND LITTLE CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. $$ WALLACE