000 AXNT20 KNHC 151811 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM ERIN AT 15/1530 UTC. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN WAS NEAR 26.0N 93.85W AT 15/1800 UTC OR ABOUT 185 NM/340 KM EAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND ABOUT 225 NM/415 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. T.S. ERIN IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 10 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC OR THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 25N TO THE COASTS OF TEXAS AND LOUISIANA BETWEEN 91W AND 96W. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEAN WAS NEAR 12.4N 46.0W AT 15/1500 UTC MOVING WEST 17 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC OR THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 46W AND 47.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10.5N TO 12N BETWEEN 47W AND 51W. POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 44W AND 45W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W SOUTH OF 19N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 14N. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 14.5N TO 15.5N BETWEEN 31W AND 32W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W SOUTH OF 19N MOVING WEST 20 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 59W AND 61W. ...THE ITCZ... 11N15W 9N27W 12N41W 10N47W 8N57W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5N TO 14N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 20W...FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 20W AND 27W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS/WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... TROPICAL STORM ERIN WAS NEAR 25.6N 93.5W AT 15/1530 UTC. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 25N TO THE COASTS OF TEXAS AND LOUISIANA BETWEEN 91W AND 96W. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT MOVED ACROSS THE FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS 4 TO 5 DAYS AGO...AND THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... EVENTUALLY MOVED INTO SOUTH TEXAS...AND NOW THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS FEATURE COVERS THE TEXAS BIG BEND AND PARTS OF THE FAR WEST TEXAS. TROPICAL STORM ERIN IS UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE...AND AT THE SAME TIME ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 31N71W 24N72W 20N73W MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE WATERS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA COAST FROM 25N TO 26N BETWEEN THE COAST AND 83W...FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN 84W AND 87W IN AN AREA OF SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT WIND FLOW UNDER SOME UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 83W AND 88W... INCLUDING IN THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE SOUTH OF A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 25N64W THAT IS BEING STRETCHED OUT AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD... INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE TO 16N68W AND NORTHWESTERN COASTAL VENEZUELA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IS APPROACHING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS FROM THE EAST. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS NORTH OF 12N/13N TO THE WEST OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW MOVES FROM NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA ON TOP OF THE ITCZ. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 7N TO 14N BETWEEN 76W AND 83W...NEAR THE ITCZ IN BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... ONE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 31N71W 24N72W 20N73W AT THE NORTHERN HAITI COAST. A SEPARATE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE 31N71W 20N73W TROUGH IS BEING STRETCHED OUT AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD NEAR 25N64W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N TO 28N BETWEEN 67W AND 70W...AND FROM 22N TO 24N BETWEEN 71W AND 73W. A CENTRAL ATLANTIC MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 31N44W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 39W AND 51W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS FROM 15N TO 25N BETWEEN 33W AND 63W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 26N31W TO 21N33W TO 13N36W. $$ MT