000 AXNT20 KNHC 122354 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN AUG 12 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A 1008 MB LOW...ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 25W S OF 18N...IS LOCATED OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 12.5N25W. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE NE OF A CONVECTIVE MASS. THIS SYSTEM HAS IMPROVED IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TONIGHT OR TOMORROW AS THE LOW MOVES WESTWARD AT 15-20 KT. PRESENTLY...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-14N BETWEEN 27W-30W. . ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W S OF 14N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS IS A LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE JUST N OF THE ITCZ. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS SEEN. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. AN INVERTED-V CLOUD FIELD IS NOTED. MID-LEVEL ROTATION HAS ALSO BECOME EVIDENT. SCATTRED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE CURRENTLY FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 41W-45W. TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF JAMAICA ALONG 77W. A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS IS NOTED. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 76W-79W. LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 86W/87W S OF 22N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS JUST S OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N84W. THE SYSTEM IS PRODUCING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF CUBA FROM 14N-22N BETWEEN 79W-86W. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 16N16W 11N30W 10N44W 8N50W 8N61W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION DISCUSSED IN THE SECTIONS ABOVE ...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE AFRICAN COAST FROM 7N-16N E OF 18W ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1014 MB LOW IS INLAND OVER SRN ALABAMA NEAR 32N87W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW TO S LOUISIANA AND THE NRN GULF NEAR 29N92W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM 29N-31N BETWEEN 83W-89W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 80W-84W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 88W-92W. FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER N MEXICO NEAR 26N106W MOVING W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF W CUBA THE NEAR 24N85W MOVING W. EXPECT AIRMASS CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN GULF E OF 95W...AND OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF S OF 25N DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 86W IS BY FAR THE MOST CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE. SEE ABOVE. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER NW VENEZUELA AND N COLOMBIA FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 68W-65W. SCATTERED MODERATE TI ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 77W-85W. CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA TO HONDURAS FROM 9N-16N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF W CUBA THE NEAR 24N85W MOVING W AND PRODUCING CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. FURTHER E...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N63W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE N OF 15N. EXPECT...CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER NRN SOUTH AMERICA...THE WRN CARIBBEAN...AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 77W FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVES. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 35N31W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO THE BAHAMAS ALONG 26N60W 26N77W. WINDS FROM 20N-30N ARE ELY 10-15 KT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 25N49W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 23N33W. EXPECT CONVECTION OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 25N AND W OF 60W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. $$ FORMOSA