000 AXNT20 KNHC 111750 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT AUG 11 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17W AND 19W SOUTH OF 20N...STILL EAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 10N ALONG THE WAVE. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 19W AND 22W. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT TWO OR THREE DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD 15 TO 20 MPH. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W/30W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W/46W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W S OF 21N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS FEATURE IS OVER EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC PRODUCING A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION. SANTO DOMING0 REPORTED TSRA DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND RAIN WILL BE ON INCREASE AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE ISLAND TODAY. THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR DEPICTS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS AFFECTING MAINLY THE MONA PASSAGE. AS THE DAY GOES ON...MOISTURE FROM THIS WAVE SHOULD SPREAD FIRST OVER THE REMAINDER OF HISPANIOLA AND AFTERWARD OVER THE BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W/69W SOUTH OF 21N MOVING WEST 15 KT. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ON TOP OF THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW. THE ENTIRE AREA FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 68W AND 70W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN 68W AND 72W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...IS COVERED BY THIS PRECIPITATION. SOME OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS MOVING AROUND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH...AND SOME OF IT IS MOVING TOWARD THE BAHAMAS CYCLONIC CENTER. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W/78W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AROUND JAMAICA FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE FROM 14N TO 21N BETWEEN 77W AND 83W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE NORTH OF HONDURAS TO 20N WEST OF 83W IN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE BAHAMAS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. ...THE ITCZ... 9N21W 10N29W 10N45W 10N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 28W AND 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS ELSEWHERE FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 23W AND 30W. DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 60W...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA NORTH OF 15N WEST OF 70W... ONE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS ON TOP OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THIS CENTER COVERS THE AREA FROM 30N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO CUBA AND 20N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...BETWEEN 60W AND 85W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO INCLUDING ALL OF FLORIDA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG A LINE FROM TAMPA FLORIDA TO 24N85W TO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 19N87W. ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM SE OF A LINE FROM TAMPA FLORIDA TO 25N87W 23N90W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AROUND JAMAICA FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 77W/78W SOUTH OF 21N. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE FROM 14N TO 21N BETWEEN 77W AND 83W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE NORTH OF HONDURAS TO 20N WEST OF 83W IN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW. THE CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF 70W...AND THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N31W TO 25N48W TO 20N60W TO 14N62W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ON TOP OF THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW AND A 68W/69W TROPICAL WAVE. THE ENTIRE AREA FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 68W AND 70W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN 68W AND 72W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...IS COVERED BY THIS PRECIPITATION. SOME OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS MOVING AROUND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH...AND SOME OF IT IS MOVING TOWARD THE BAHAMAS CYCLONIC CENTER. ONE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W/69W SOUTH OF 21N ALSO ADDING SOME ENERGY FOR THE PRECIPITATION. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W/78W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE BAHAMAS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER. THE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 59W AND 64W IN NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA AND SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS MAY BE RELATED TO THE LOCATION RELATIVE TO THE SOUTHERN END OF THE 33N31W 14N62W TROUGH...AND THE ITCZ. THE CARIBBEAN SEA SOUTH OF 15N WEST OF 70W... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE PANAMA COAST TO 11N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W. IT IS EASILY POSSIBLE THAT ALL THIS PRECIPITATION MAY BE RELATED TO THE 78W/79W TROPICAL WAVE AND THE ITCZ. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 36N35W TO 32N42W TO 27N54W TO 26N66W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 26N78W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS EAST OF THE 33N31W TO 20N60W 14N62W MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. $$ MT