000
AXNT20 KNHC 091804
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU AUG 09 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1645 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 37W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. ISOLATED 
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 34W AND 
38W. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 57W S OF 25N MOVING W 15 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION0 ARE FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 
57W-59W. 

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W S OF 18N MOVING W 15 KT. THE WAVE HAS 
BEEN RE-LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 64W-69W

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IN THE CARIBBEAN WITH MOST CONVECTIVE 
ACTIVITY ALONG THE S END OF THE WAVE OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF 
PANAMA.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 16N16W 10N35W 9N50W 12N69W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM S 
OF THE AXIS FROM THE  COAST OF AFRICA TO 21W AND WITHIN 140 NM S 
OF AXIS FROM 46W-53W.

DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
INVERTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER MEXICO FROM 16N98W TO THE 
BIG BEND OF TEXAS. A BROAD UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER MISSISSIPPI
WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.
A 1017 MB SURFACE HIGH IS ANALYZED NEAR 28N89W. RELATIVELY DRY 
STABLE AIR ACROSS THE AREA WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS S OF 27N E OF 
90W. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN OFF 
THE W COAST OF CUBA NEAR 21N74W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ROTATING 
AROUND THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION. SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW 
FROM THE ATLC THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO JUST SE OF 
JAMAICA. SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE BEEN BUILDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN 
END OF THE TROUGH FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 74W-77W. UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BROAD UPPER HIGH OVER MISSISSIPPI WITH RIDGE EXTENDING OVER 
THE W ATLC N OF 25N W OF 70W. AN UPPER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS 
NE OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N70W. SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 
27N66W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS 
ALONG THE TROUGH FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 67W-72W. A WEAKENING UPPER 
TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS THROUGH 32N35W SW TO 22N60W. 
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER 
AFRICA...NEAR 24N5W... WITH RIDGE EXTENDING WWD INTO THE ATLC TO 
15N47W. SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE ATLC N OF THE 
ITCZ E OF 40W.

$$
DGS