000 AXNT20 KNHC 091040 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU AUG 09 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. LOW AMPLITUDE WEAK WAVE WITH SLIGHT LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE JUST N OF THE ITCZ AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 34W-36W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W/57W S OF 25N MOVING W 20 KT. HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVE REMAINS STRETCHED AND CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT WELL DEFINED LOW/MID LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 54W-59W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. LOW AMPLITUDE WEAK WAVE THAT IS BENEATH AN UPPER HIGH MASKING SATELLITE SIGNATURE. BASED ON THE UPPER AIR DATA...THIS WAVE IS VERY SHALLOW WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W/83W S OF 19N MOVING W 15 KT. LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N-15N W OF 81W TO INLAND OVER NICARAGUA. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N16W 10N33W 12N54W BECOMING DISTORTED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES AND SURFACE TROUGH AS IT APPROACHES THE CARIBBEAN/SOUTH AMERICA. SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF THE AXIS E OF 20W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA AND WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF GUINEA AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF A LINE FROM 7N45W TO 5N52W. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER HIGH REMAINS OVER THE FAR E TENNESSEE/THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS EXTENDING OVER THE E GULF E OF 92W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W GULF EXTENDING JUST INLAND ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO/TEXAS WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTERED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION JUST ALONG THE SW COAST OF MEXICO. THE GULF REMAINS UNDER RELATIVELY DRY STABLE AIR WITH A 1015 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N91W. THUS THE GULF IS MOSTLY CLOUD AND SHOWER FREE AGAIN THIS MORNING WITH SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE W COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM 24N-28N E OF 85W. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE S CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N73W AND EXTENDS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR S BELIZE. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W/CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH A SMALL UPPER LOW JUST NE OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO A SECOND SMALL UPPER LOW OVER W CUBA NEAR 22N83W CLIPPING THE N CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM JUST W OF THE ABC ISLANDS NEAR 13N72W ACROSS S HAITI AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE INTO THE SW ATLC PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120/150 NM OF A LINE FROM 14N68W ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO E CUBA NEAR 20N75W. TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N W OF 62W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE BROAD UPPER HIGH ANCHORED OVER TENNESSEE/NORTH CAROLINA EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC N OF 25N W OF 70W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE REGION JUST E OF BERMUDA THROUGH A SMALL UPPER LOW NEAR 29N67W SW TO AN UPPER LOW JUST NE OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 24N73W THEN W CONTINUING TO THE UPPER LOW OVER W CUBA CLIPPING THE N CARIBBEAN. THIS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 30N59W TO 22N71W. A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N74W TO NEAR 26N73W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 21N FROM 70W-76W. AN UPPER HIGH IN THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS THE RIDGE AXIS NE ACROSS PUERTO RICO/VIRGIN ISLANDS INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC TO 30N59W. A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS THROUGH 32N48W SW TO 20N54W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FAR NE ATLC S TO OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS E OF 25W WITH AN UPPER LOW REMAINING OVER THE MADEIRA ISLANDS. DRY STABLE AIR DOMINATES THE ATLC E OF 55W WITH A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH W OF THE AZORES WELL N OF THE REGION. $$ WALLACE