000 AXNT20 KNHC 080543 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED AUG 08 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W S OF 14N MOVING W 5-10 KT. LOW AMPLITUDE WITH MID LEVEL ROTATION ALONG THE WAVE AXIS WITHIN THE ITCZ. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED ALONG 22N46W TO 5N42W MOVING W 15-20 KT. HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVE HAS BECOME STRETCHED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT WELL DEFINED LOW/MID LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN 75 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 43W-48W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. LOW AMPLITUDE WEAK WAVE WITH POSITION BASED ON CONTINUITY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W/76W S OF 19N MOVING W 15 KT. EXACT WAVE POSITION REMAINS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE DUE THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY STABLE AIR OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N15W 11N27W 8N36W 12N49W 13N61W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF 2N FROM 39W-42W. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER HIGH REMAINS OVER THE E TENNESSEE GIVING MOST OF THE GULF E UPPER FLOW EXCEPT OVER THE SW GULF WHERE A SMALL UPPER LOW IS CENTERED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N93W. THE GULF IS CONTROLLED BY DRY STABLE AIR AND A 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N92W...THUS THE GULF IS MOSTLY CLOUD AND SHOWER FREE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS OFF THE SW FLORIDA PENINSULA...REMNANTS OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER HIGH IS ANCHORED JUST W OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 13N64W AND EXTENDS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TO OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 15N82W. THE W CARIBBEAN HAS UPPER S FLOW DUE TO THE UPPER LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS COMBINATION IS PRODUCING ENOUGH DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 77W-80W. AN UPPER LOW JUST E OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS DIPS S TO OVER HISPANIOLA TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 13N64W ACROSS PUERTO RICO INTO THE SW ATLC NEAR 23N65W PRODUCING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150/200 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH INCLUDING THE N WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER COLOMBIA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS PANAMA AND COUPLED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS ARE GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N FROM 78W-83W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS CONTROLLED BY DRY STABLE AIR AND REMAINS MOSTLY CLOUD AND SHOWER FREE AGAIN TONIGHT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE BROAD UPPER HIGH ANCHORED OVER TENNESSEE EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC N OF 26N W OF 68W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE REGION E OF BERMUDA THROUGH 32N63W SSW TO AN UPPER LOW JUST E OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 22N69W CONTINUING TO JUST OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 23N65W ACROSS PUERTO RICO INTO THE E CARIBBEAN PRODUCING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N-29N BETWEEN 57W-67W. DRY STABLE AIR DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC W OF 67W. AN UPPER HIGH IS JUST W OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 13N64W EXTENDING THE RIDGE AXIS NE TO 27N52W. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS THROUGH 32N45W S TO 15N45W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OF A LINE FROM 12N37W TO 14N43W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NE ATLC S OVER THE FAR E ATLC N OF 23N E OF 30W WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MADEIRA ISLANDS. DRY SOMEWHAT STABLE AIR DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH W OF THE AZORES WELL N OF THE REGION. $$ WALLACE