000 AXNT20 KNHC 051820 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN AUG 05 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A HIGH AMPLITUDE ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W/32W SOUTH OF 24N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. THIS WAVE SHOWS A LARGE WELL DEFINED AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS ON THE ITCZ. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN 25W-31W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 KT. THIS WEAK WAVE REMAINS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AND IS MOVED BY CONTINUITY. PRECIPITATION IS CONFINED TO THE ITCZ. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 40W-50W. A HIGH AMPLITUDE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W SOUTH OF 23N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. THIS LARGE-SCALE WAVE SHOWS UP WELL ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE NORTHERN PART OF THIS WAVE HOWEVER...IS UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 20N61W. BOTH FEATURES ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 57W-62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FURTHER S OVER THE WINDWARD ISLAND DUE TO THE WAVE FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 61W-66W. A STRONG CENTRAL AMERICAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 89W S OF 22N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS ABOVE THIS WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 84W-87W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 87W-91W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 10N30W 9N40W 8N50W 11N62W. OTHER THAN THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION... WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 18W-23W...AND FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 31W-40W. DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED S OF LOUISIANA NEAR 27N92W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SEE ABOVE. 5 TO 10 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS DOMINATE THE GULF OF MEXICO. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS NOTED OVER THE GULF. A SMALL PATCH OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITHIN 30 NM OF 20N95W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N90W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS S OF 28N. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS S OF 25N BETWEEN 83W-96W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO N OF 26N AND E OF 92W. EXPECT SHOWERS OVER N FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION OVER THE W GULF W OF 94W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. SEE ABOVE. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 77W-82W. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED WITH 20 KT WINDS N OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ELY UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1014 MB LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N75W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 28N79W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 29N-31N BETWEEN 69W-72W. A 1028 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N36W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 27N55W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...NLY FLOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF 65W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS E OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N54W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NE TO 30N50W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED FURTHER E NEAR 18N43W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR 25N28W. $$ FORMOSA