000 AXNT20 KNHC 050623 CCA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN AUG 05 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. CORRECTION IN ORDER TO UPDATE THE SECTIONS FOR TROPICAL WAVES AND THE ITCZ BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A HIGH AMPLITUDE ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W/27W SOUTH OF 21N MOVING WEST 15 KT. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A LARGE WELL DEFINED AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS. THE MOST PRONOUNCED ROTATION...WITHOUT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ALREADY HAS CLEARED THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 25W AND 30W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 15 KT. THIS WEAK WAVE REMAINS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AS IT IS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW OF THE LARGER WAVES TO THE EAST AND WEST. STABLE AIR AND BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS SURROUND THIS WAVE. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ITCZ. A HIGH AMPLITUDE ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. THIS LARGE-SCALE WAVE REMAINS FAIRLY EASILY SEEN WITH A PRONOUNCED INVERTED-V SHAPE IN THE LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD FIELD. THE NORTHERN PART OF THIS WAVE IS PASSING THROUGH AN AREA ALREADY OCCUPIED BY THE 26N67W 20N60W EAST CARIBBEAN SEA MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ITCZ PRECIPITATION IS FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. THIS WAVE HAS GAINED MOISTURE AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY BECAUSE OF THE TROUGH. A STRONG CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W/87W FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL SOUTHWARD OVER HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA...MOVING WEST NEARLY 20 KT. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ON TOP OF THIS WAVE. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE PACIFIC COASTS FROM WESTERN NICARAGUA TO EL SALVADOR. OTHER AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA NORTH OF 11N WEST OF 82W...INCLUDING LAND AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...SOUTHERN BELIZE...AND THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE NORTHERN PART OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 97W REACHES INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SOUTH OF 21N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. THIS WAVE REMAINS WEAK WITH THE CURRENT POSITION BASED MOSTLY ON A MODEST WESTWARD SURGE OF MOISTURE NOTED ON THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN-CIMSS TPW PRODUCT. SOME OF THE MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE ROTATING MORE NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE RIDGING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. ALL THE PRECIPITATION FROM THE 86W/87W TROPICAL WAVE BETWEEN 82W AND 94W OVERSHADOWS THIS WAVE. ...THE ITCZ... 15N17W 12N25W 9N47W 10N52W 13N57W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 10N14W 9N30W 8N40W...AND WITHIN 180 NM SOUTH OF 8N40W 11N50W 14N55W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM NORTH OF THE SAME 8N40W 14N55W LINE. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN INTERIOR MEXICO NOW NEAR 25N104W. THIS CYCLONIC CENTER WAS OVER SOUTH TEXAS ABOUT 24 HOURS AGO. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN MEXICO FROM 20N TO 29N BETWEEN 102W AND 108W. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER ORIGINALLY OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA 24 HOURS AGO NOW IS IN MEXICO NEAR 19N99W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ON TOP OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR RUNS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS TO THE EAST WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 20N96W 25N92W 27N82W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ON TOP OF THE TROPICAL WAVE IS SOUTH OF 26N BETWEEN 80W AND 95W. A SURFACE RIDGE GOES FROM A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 28N70W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA...TO 28N71W TO 27N88W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W/87W FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL SOUTHWARD OVER HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ON TOP OF THIS WAVE. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE PACIFIC COASTS FROM WESTERN NICARAGUA TO EL SALVADOR. OTHER AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA NORTH OF 11N WEST OF 82W...INCLUDING LAND AREASNORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...SOUTHERN BELIZE...AND THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS MOVING ANTICYCLONICALLY INTO THE AREA...TO THE WEST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE NORTH OF 17N73W 15N69W 15N60W ALONG THE TROUGH. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS LIKELY IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN APPROACHES. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 19N86W...THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND BEYOND 32N65W NEAR BERMUDA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 26N57W TO 20N60W TO THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 TO 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 18N62W 21N58W 27N55W. A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A SLOWLY-DEVELOPING CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 30N32W TO 20N40W TO 15N44W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N12W TO THE CANARY ISLANDS AND 28N15W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 35N36W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 21N BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 59W TROPICAL WAVE. $$ MT