000 AXNT20 KNHC 021105 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU AUG 02 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 12N61W...MOVING WEST 10 KT. THIS LOW PRESSURE HAS BEEN WEAKENING LITTLE BY LITTLE AND HAS BECOME AN OPEN TROPICAL WAVE AT THIS POINT BY 02/0900 UTC. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 62W AND 67W. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AT THIS TIME. THE SYSTEM STILL HAS SOME POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 20 MPH. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL INVESTIGATE THE AREA AGAIN LATER TODAY IF NECESSARY. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W/27W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. A WEAKENING 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THIS WAVE NEAR 14N. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION REALLY SEEMS TO BE RELATED ONLY TO THE ITCZ AND NOT THIS WAVE. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION REALLY SEEMS TO BE RELATED ONLY TO THE ITCZ AND NOT THIS WAVE. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE RUNS FROM HAITI ALONG 72W/73W SOUTH OF 20N TO THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA...MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W/84W SOUTH OF 21N TO NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA. THIS WAVE IS MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING FROM 16N TO 21N BETWEEN 74W AND 81W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...SOUTH OF 10N/11N BETWEEN THE GULF OF URABA OF COLOMBIA AND 82W. THIS PRECIPITATION MOST PROBABLY IS RELATED TO THE ITCZ. ...THE ITCZ... 13N16W 14N23W 11N28W 8N41W 8N45W 10N58W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 43W AND 51W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 7N TO 16N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 36W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTH OF 26N EAST OF 90W. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW IS PART OF THE LARGER SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE U.S.A. NORTH OF 30N EAST OF 90W. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA TO 28N85W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N74W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 27N79W... ACROSS FLORIDA JUST NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE...TO A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 29N87W...TO A SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO 28N92W THE UPPER TEXAS COAST NEAR 29N95W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF 26N EAST OF 93W. A SURFACE RIDGE POKES ITS WAY INTO THE AREA FROM THE BAHAMAS TOWARD WESTERN CUBA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... LARGE SCALE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR THE SMALLER AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SOUTH OF 16N EAST OF 70W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THE 72W/73W TROPICAL WAVE FROM HAITI SOUTHWARD. THE 83W/84W TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. PRECIPITATION IS NEAR AND SOUTH OF CUBA. A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 12N61W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 62W AND 67W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...SOUTH OF 10N/11N BETWEEN THE GULF OF URABA OF COLOMBIA AND 82W. THIS PRECIPITATION MOST PROBABLY IS RELATED TO THE ITCZ. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N73W TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN SOUTH FLORIDA...TO A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 29N87W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF 27N80W 29N73W BEYOND 32N63W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 29N79W BEYOND 31N70W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 31N53W. A BIG RIDGE IS IN BETWEEN A 33N27W NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...AND THE 31N53W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 33N45W TO 29N59W TO 25N74W. $$ MT