000 AXNT20 KNHC 250446 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED JUL 25 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH WWW5 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. LOW AMPLITUDE LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED COVERING THE AREA FROM 32W-43W. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W/55W S OF 22N MOVING W NEAR 25 KT. BROAD LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED COVERING THE AREA FROM 48W-62W. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 55W-58W. CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W/84W S OF 20N MOVING W 20-25 KT. LOW/MID LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED COVERING THE AREA FROM 78W-89W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 13N-21N BETWEEN 78W-88W. TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING OUT OF THE SW GULF OF MEXICO AND IS ACROSS S MEXICO INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION ALONG 97W S OF 20N MOVING W 15-20 KT. ANY ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/DEEP CONVECTION ARE OVER MEXICO AND IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. THIS WAVE IS MOVING OUT OF THE REGION...REFER TO TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATWDEP FOR FURTHER DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N15W 11N28W 10N40W 9N62W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-14N E OF 22W TO THE COAST OF W AFRICA. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-14N BETWEEN 22W-34W AND FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 34W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... LARGE DEEP LAYERED LOW REMAINS OVER THE E US AND THE FAR W ATLC EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS LOUISIANA SW TO MEXICO JUST S OF TAMPICO. A 1012 MB LOW REMAINS OVER SE LOUISIANA WITH A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO TEXAS NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NE FLORIDA AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. LARGE UPPER HIGH IN THE W CARIBBEAN DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF AND IS ENHANCING THE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST OF CUBA INTO THE SE GULF FROM 81W-84W AS WELL AS SIMILAR ACTIVITY S OF 23N FROM 88W-94W TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS RATHER SHOWER FREE TONIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IN THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT. A LARGE UPPER HIGH IS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 21N85W DOMINATING THE AREA W OF 70W AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS N OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE W ATLC AND IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF 17N FROM 72W-82W. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM OVER VENEZUELA TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH DRY STABLE AIR DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... LARGE DEEP LAYERED LOW IS OVER THE E US EXTENDING INTO THE W ATLC N OF 29N W OF 76W WITH A WEAKENING ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N76W TO NE FLORIDA. THE LARGE UPPER HIGH IN THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS W CUBA NE TO 32N70W COVERING THE W ATLC W OF 66W GIVING THE AREA SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 24N W OF 68W. LARGE UPPER LOW IN THE CENTRAL ATLC IS CENTERED NEAR 29N53W COVERING THE AREA N OF 17N FROM 45W-66W. BENIGN UPPER LEVEL HIGH/TROUGH WITH DRY STABLE AIR AND A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE REGION PRODUCING ONLY FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. $$ WALLACE