000
AXNT20 KNHC 241023
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUL 24 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W/48W S OF 26N MOVING W 20-25 KT. BROAD 
LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED COVERING THE AREA 
FROM 40W-55W. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/DEEP CONVECTION. 

CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W S OF 21N MOVING W NEAR 20 
KT. LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED EXTENDING FROM 
68W-81W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION ARE FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 74W-82W INCLUDING JAMAICA 
AND SE CUBA. 

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS S MEXICO INTO 
THE E PACIFIC REGION ALONG 92W S OF 22N MOVING W 20 KT. LOW 
LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS DISTORTED DUE TO A STRONG UPPER 
LEVEL HIGH TO THE E OVER THE W CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE/ 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN AND IN THE 
E PACIFIC REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE 
WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST FROM 89W-95W. 

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N15W 10N25W 8N31W 9N45W 9N62W. 
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE 
WITHIN 200 NM OF THE AXIS E OF 42W TO THE COAST OF W AFRICA AND 
WITHIN WITHIN 150 NM ALONG THE SW COAST OF AFRICA S OF 10N W OF 
11W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
LARGE DEEP LAYERED LOW REMAINS OVER THE E US AND THE FAR W ATLC 
EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS ALABAMA 
TO MEXICO S OF TAMPICO. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS 
FROM A 1010 MB LOW ALONG THE N GULF COAST NEAR 30N89W SE TO THE 
COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR TAMPA AND A SECOND TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO 
OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS NEAR 26N95W. THERE IS AN ADDITIONAL 
SURFACE TROUGH IN THE W ATLC. LARGE UPPER HIGH IN THE W 
CARIBBEAN IS ENHANCING THE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER 
THE E GULF N OF 24N E OF 89W TO OVER FLORIDA AND THE N GULF 
COAST. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR MOST OF 
THE ACTIVITY IN THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT. A LARGE UPPER HIGH IS IN 
THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 19N83W DOMINATING THE AREA AND EXTENDING 
RIDGE AXIS N OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE W ATLC 
ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY OVER THE YUCATAN ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. IN ADDITION THE UPPER 
HIGH IS PRODUCING SCATTERED CLUSTERS SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS DOTTING THE AREA W OF 67W. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
LARGE DEEP LAYERED LOW IS OVER THE E US EXTENDING INTO THE W 
ATLC N OF 28N W OF 72W WITH A ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH 
EXTENDING INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N74W TO OVER S FLORIDA NEAR 
MIAMI. THE LARGE UPPER HIGH IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE 
AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA NE TO 30N68W COVERING THE REMAINDER OF 
THE W ATLC W OF 63W GIVING THE AREA SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED 
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF 70W. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE 
CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 24N52W COVERING THE AREA N OF 17N 
FROM 44W-63W ENHANCING SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N FROM 60W-70W. AN UPPER RIDGE 
COVERS THE E ATLC E OF 30W EXTENDING E/W ALONG 23W/24W. A 
SURFACE RIDGE WITH DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE ATLC E OF 65W 
ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH AND A 1030 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE 
REGION PRODUCING ONLY FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER 
OF THE AREA. 

$$
WALLACE