000
AXNT20 KNHC 240510
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE JUL 24 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W S OF 22N MOVING W 20-25 KT. BROAD 
LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED COVERING THE AREA 
FROM 35W-55W. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/DEEP CONVECTION. 

CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 74W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 20 
KT. LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED EXTENDING FROM 
67W-80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 
14N-20N BETWEEN 70W-80W INCLUDING JAMAICA...THE S HISPANIOLA AND
SE CUBA. 

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA MOVING INTO THE SW 
GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 90W S OF 22N MOVING W 15-20 KT. LOW LEVEL 
INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS DISTORTED DUE TO A STRONG UPPER LEVEL 
HIGH TO THE E OVER THE W/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA S OF 23N TO OVER THE 
YUCATAN BETWEEN 86W-93W. 

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N15W 11N28W 10N45W 5N57W. CLUSTERS 
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-10N 
BETWEEN 20W-42W AND FROM 10N-13N E OF 18W TO INLAND OVER W 
AFRICA. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 
4N-9N BETWEEN 10W-20W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
LARGE DEEP LAYERED LOW IS OVER THE E US AND THE FAR NW ATLC 
EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS SE 
LOUISIANA NEAR NEW ORLEANS TO NE MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO. AN 
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1011 MB LOW OVER SE 
LOUISIANA NEAR 30N89W SE TO THE COAST OF FLORIDA JUST S OF TAMPA 
AND A SECOND TROUGH EXTENDING SW  TO THE COAST OF TEXAS NEAR 
CORPUS CHRISTI. THE IS AN ADDITIONAL SURFACE TROUGH INT HE W 
ATLC. LARGE UPPER HIGH IN THE W CARIBBEAN IS ENHANCING THE 
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE E GULF N OF 24N E OF 
85W TO OVER FLORIDA. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE W GULF S OF 27N W OF 90W. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TROPICAL WAVES IN THE CARIBBEAN ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR MOST OF 
THE ACTIVITY IN THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT. A LARGE UPPER HIGH IS IN 
THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 19N83W DOMINATING THE AREA AND EXTENDING 
RIDGE AXIS N OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE W ATLC 
ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY OVER THE YUCATAN ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
TROPICAL WAVE. IN ADDITION THE UPPER HIGH IS PRODUCING SCATTERED 
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 
11N-14N W OF 81W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
LARGE DEEP LAYERED LOW IS OVER THE E US EXTENDING INTO THE W 
ATLC N OF 26N W OF 74W WITH A ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH 
EXTENDING INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N75W OVER FLORIDA NEAR LAKE 
OKEECHOBEE. THE LARGE UPPER HIGH IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A 
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA NE TO 33N62W COVERING THE 
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC W OF 60W GIVING THE AREA SMALL CLUSTERS 
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF 70W. AN UPPER 
LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 24N52W COVERING THE 
AREA N OF 17N FROM 48W-60W. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC E 
OF 30W EXTENDING E/W ALONG 23W. A SURFACE RIDGE WITH DRY STABLE 
AIR COVERS THE ATLC E OF 65W ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH AND A 
1031 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE REGION PRODUCING ONLY FAIR WEATHER 
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. 

$$
WALLACE