000 AXNT20 KNHC 232352 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A LARGE ATLC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W MOVING W 20-25 KT. THE WAVE EXHIBITS A VERY LARGE INVERTED V SHAPE. A DENSE LAYER OF SAHARAN DUST IS EVIDENT ON BOTH SIDES OF THE WAVE AXIS. DEEP CONVECTION IS MINIMAL AND IS CONFINED TO THE ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 34W-39W. CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W S OF 21N MOVING W 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 69W-74W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FURTHER S FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 73W-77W. W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 13N-22N BETWEEN 86W-92W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N16W 11N40W 6N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 14W-17W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 20W-30W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 34W-39W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1013 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER NEAR 29N89W. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS W FROM THE LOW TO THE TEXAS COAST ALONG 27N93W 29N96W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW TO FLORIDA ALONG 29N85W 28N80W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS IS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 80W-89W. ELSEWHERE...CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN 86W-91W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER CUBA BETWEEN 80W-84W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. EXPECT THE FRONTS TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... HOWEVER CONVECTION WILL PERSIST OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE DUE TO A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA PRODUCING CONVECTION. SEE ABOVE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA HAS SLACKENED THUS TRADEWINDS HAVE LIGHTENED. 15-20 KT WINDS REMAIN ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA HOWEVER. PATCHES OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE INLAND OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 76W-86W. ELSEWHERE... SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER CUBA FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 77W-80W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AT 19N81W. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION FROM THE TWO TROPICAL WAVES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC ALONG 30N76W 28N77W 28N80W. CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE FRONT FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 72W-75W... AND FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN 71W-75W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 79W-80W. ONE DOMINATE 1030 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 38N46N PRODUCING MAINLY FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF 60W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 24N52W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED FURTHER E NEAR 24N38W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 21N22W. $$ FORMOSA