000 AXNT20 KNHC 220547 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN JUL 22 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA ALONG 22W/23W S OF 19N MOVING W 15 KT. THE WAVE IS FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED WITH CYCLONIC TURNING COVERING A BROAD AREA. EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS CONFIRMED THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE ITCZ FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 19W-25W. TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 58W S OF 20N MOVING W 15 KT. BROAD LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS NOTED WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 55W-61W. LIGHT SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS ARE ALREADY AFFECTING GUADELOUPE. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE CARIBBEAN SEA THIS MORNING. MOISTURE FROM THIS WAVE SHOULD AFFECT THE UK/US VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY. TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 78W S OF 20N MOVING W 15 KT. A BROAD LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS NOTED WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER JAMAICA AND ERN CUBA. THE WAVE IS ALSO GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 76W-80W. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN TODAY...REACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE EARLY MONDAY. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 16N20W 9N30W 10N45W 10N63W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 19W-25W...AND FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 29W-41W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK RIDGING AND A WEAK SFC TROUGH DOMINATES THE GULF. AS OF 0300 UTC...A 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE GULF NEAR 29N93W. A SFC TROUGH GOES FROM 30N85W TO 26N88W. A STATIONARY FRONT LIES ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. THERE ARE ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE FOUND ACROSS THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. DIGS INTO THE EASTERN GULF. THE BASE OF THE TROUGH REACHES THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA. WV IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 22N88W. THIS TROUGH IS HELPING TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE STATE OF FLORIDA AND WESTERN CUBA AND SUPPORTS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS INLAND OVER N/CENTRAL MEXICO WITH THE UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE GULF W OF 90W...WHERE NLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE OBSERVED. CARIBBEAN SEA... RIDGE N OF AREA AND LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA IS PRODUCING MODERATE TRADE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W PRODUCING CONVECTION IN THE AREA. SEE ABOVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA. ALOFT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING SWLY FLOW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA AND CUBA. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED MIDWAY BETWEEN JAMAICA AND COLOMBIA WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN. UPPER DRY AIR COVERS MOST OF THE E CARIBBEAN AND N VENEZUELA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AS IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...THE AZORES HIGH WITH A 1035 MB CENTER NEAR 38N45W DOMINATES MOST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WITH MAINLY FAIR WEATHER. ONLY PATCHES OF LOW/MID CLOUDS ARE SEEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AZORES HIGH AND A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES JUST SOUTH OF THE AZORES IS PRODUCING A SWATH OF 20 TO 25 KT NELY WINDS FROM 20N TO 30N EAST OF 45W. ALOFT...A WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NEAR 30N67W. A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS... EXTENDING FROM EASTERN HISPANIOLA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. A CUT-OFF LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 24N50W. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM W AFRICA INTO THE E ATLC E OF 26W. $$ GR