000 AXNT20 KNHC 202347 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS TITLED ALONG 18N45W 12N48W 4N49W MOVING W 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT CLEAR CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE SURROUNDING SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW TO MID FIELD. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS ABSENT HOWEVER SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 41W-47W. TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 71W S OF 18N. SOME OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE APPEARS TO HAVE BROKEN OFF TO THE N OF HISPANIOLA...AND IS POISED TO TRACK NWWD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE ATLC SFC RIDGE. THIS PORTION IS BEING ANALYZED AS A TROUGH N OF HISPANIOLA. THE CARIBBEAN PORTION IS TRACKING WWD 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 68W-72W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 68W-74W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 8N25W 9N35W 14N47W 6N56W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 13W-18W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 16W-27W...AND FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 28W-32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR 29N93W. LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER LOUISIANA FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 90W-93W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER TEXAS FROM 27N-31N BETWEEN 96W-101W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 87W-91W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER CUBA BETWEEN 80W-85W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER FLORIDA FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 81W-82W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS ...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO NEAR 32N108W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER SE TEXAS NEAR 29N97W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER W CUBA NEAR 22N82W PRODUCING CYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AND W CUBA. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE W GULF FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS OVER INLAND FLORIDA. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA PRODUCING THE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION IN THE AREA. SEE ABOVE. TRADEWINDS HAVE LIGHTENED TO 15-20 KT ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 77W-80W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER W CUBA NEAR 22N82W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS SE CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N80W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 20N60W. EXPECT CONVECTION OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 80W-81W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF HISPANIOLA ALONG 25N65W 23N68W 20N70W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 62W-70W. ONE DOMINATE 1034 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 38N42N PRODUCING MAINLY FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NEAR 27N67W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM THIS CENTER IS PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 60W-65W. ANOTHER BIGGER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N53W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 28N-33N BETWEEN 50W-55W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 25N32W. $$ FORMOSA