000 AXNT20 KNHC 190514 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU JUL 19 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS TITLED ALONG 20N32W THROUGH A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 14N36W 6N37W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. BROAD BUT WEAKENING WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW COVERING THE AREA FROM 10N-20N BETWEEN 32W-40W. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS SLIGHTLY TILTED ALONG 20N58W 14N62W 6N63W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. BROAD WAVE WITH LOW/MID LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE COVERING THE AREA FROM 55W-70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE AREA S OF 19N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA FROM 57W-66W INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 90W/91W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN S OF 20N W OF 86W. ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N14W 16N27W 7N44W 13N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120/150 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 51W-55W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF AFRICA FROM 7N-14N E OF 19W TO INLAND OVER AFRICA... ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS STILL INLAND. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 12N31W TO 5N44W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER N/CENTRAL MEXICO COVERING TEXAS AND MEXICO N OF 23N. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS S MEXICO INTO THE W GULF TO THE N GULF COAST NEAR 31N90W ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-28N W OF 94W. A 1011 MB LOW IS BENEATH THIS UPPER RIDGE AND INLAND ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 24N98W WITH A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS TO 28N94W. WEAK UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA TO OVER THE E GULF ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER S OF 27N E OF 84W. OTHERWISE A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE GULF FROM THE W ATLC WITH A 1019 MB HIGH ALONG THE SE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 28N90W. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN ELONGATED CUT-OFF UPPER LOW REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS NEAR 19N81W COVERING THE AREA N OF 16N FROM 72W-87W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 19N72W TO 22N84W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE COLOMBIA/ PANAMA BORDER NW ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN TO NEAR 17N89W. BROAD UPPER HIGH IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS E INTO THE CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 15N75W. DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 70W-78W WHILE THE E CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN S OF 15N. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WEAK UPPER HIGH IS OFF THE E COAST OF THE FLORIDA NEAR 27N78W AND COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 25N W OF 72W. CUT-OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS COVERS THE SW ATLC S OF 25N W OF 73W. GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 25N FROM 77W-80W. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 27N67W COVERING THE AREA N OF 23N FROM 61W-70W WITH A PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 30N65W ALONG 24N63W TO N THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 20N68W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 59W-66W. UPPER HIGH IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS N TO 31N58W ENHANCING THE ABOVE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 20N FROM 36W-53W WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW NEAR 26N48W. ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA OVER THE E ATLC E OF 34W. THE LAST VISIBLE IMAGES ON WEDNESDAY CONTINUE TO SHOW A LARGE SURGE OF AFRICAN DUST OVER THE E ATLC S OF A LINE FROM THE STRAIT OF GIBRALTAR ALONG 32N18W TO 23N50W WITH SOME CLEARING S OF 18N E OF 26W. A TROPICAL WAVE/LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS DUST. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED N OF THE REGION TO OVER THE N GULF OF MEXICO. $$ WALLACE