000 AXNT20 KNHC 181851 CCC TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A BROAD E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N30W 6N32W. A 1012 MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 14N MOVING W NEAR 18 KT. THE LOW ITSELF CONSISTS OF ELONGATED CYCLONIC TURNING IN BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO THE INTERSECTION OF THE WAVE AXIS AND THE ITCZ GENERALLY FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 30W-37W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W S OF 17N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A BROAD INVERTED V SHAPE. UPPER E/SE FLOW S OF AN UPPER HIGH IS DISPLACING MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION TO THE W OF THE AXIS. THIS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS AFFECTING THE SRN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND ADJACENT WATERS FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 57W-64W. ANOTHER CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90NM E OF THE AXIS FROM 8N-10N. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85/86W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOVING TOWARDS THE GULF OF HONDURAS WITHIN 200NM E OF THE AXIS N OF 15N. A SIMILAR PATCH OF CONVECTION IS MOVING ONSHORE THE SRN COAST OF NICARAGUA. THIS WAVE ALSO EXTENDS INTO THE FAR NE PACIFIC AS DESCRIBED IN THE PACIFIC DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATWDEP. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N16W 14N22W 11N29W 7N45W 12N55W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS JUST OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 9N-13N E OF 18W. NUMEROUS MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 46W-50W...AND FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 51W-55W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE IN THE WRN PORTION. NUMEROUS MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF AND ALONG THE NE MEXICO COAST FROM 21N-25N W OF 96W. SCATTERED MODERATE IS ALSO AFFECTING COASTAL TEXAS N OF 25N W OF 96W. ALTHOUGH SOME WEAK SFC TROUGHING IS EVIDENT IN THE WRN GULF...MOST OF THE SUPPORT FOR THIS ACTIVITY LIES ALOFT WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW OVER NRN MEXICO AND AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 26N91W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS UNDER THE UPPER HIGH ALSO DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF FROM 24N-27N. A WEAK 1020 MB HIGH IS JUST S OF PENSACOLA NEAR 29N87W. THIS LOOKS TO REMAIN QUASI STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...KEEPING LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS IN THE NE PORTION AND LIGHT TO MODERATE E/SE FLOW IN THE SW PORTION. CARIBBEAN SEA... ACTIVE WEATHER IS AFFECTING THE FAR W AND E PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. THE AREA BETWEEN 70W-80W IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH ONLY A FEW PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING CARRIED WWD BY THE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES IN PLACE. THE UW-CIMSS SAHARAN AIR LAYER PRODUCT ALSO DEPICTS A FAIRLY DENSE REGION OF DUST IN THIS VICINITY OF THE CENTRAL CARIB. ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS ARE AFFECTING WRN PUERTO RICO...ERN HISPANIOLA...AND ADJACENT WATERS FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 66W-70W. THIS SEEMS MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW JUST W OF JAMAICA AND AN UPPER HIGH JUST E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SHOWERS/TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE JUST E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE ERN CARIB OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. OVERALL MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES TO PERSIST. ATLANTIC OCEAN... ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OVER THE FAR WRN ATLC N OF 27N W OF 77W UNDERNEATH AN UPPER HIGH AND MOSTLY OVER THE GU