000 AXNT20 KNHC 170531 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE JUL 17 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED ALONG 17N43W 10N48W 3N53W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. BROAD WAVE WITH LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE COVERING THE AREA FROM 38W-55W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 46W-55W. TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED ALONG 22N69W 16N72W 9N73W MOVING W 15-20 KT. LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. WAVE IS JUST TO THE E OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW ENHANCING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. ANY OTHER CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 97W S OF 21N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS MORE PROMINENT OVER THE E PACIFIC REGION AND WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS BUT IS STILL INFLUENCING THE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO S OF 21N W OF 91W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 9N22W 10N39W 6N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 8N-13N E OF 17W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 17W-22W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF 7N FROM 23W-41W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... COMPLEX SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES COVER THE GULF WITH A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES...TEXAS...INTO MEXICO GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION INLAND OVER MEXICO WITHIN ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE W GULF W OF 93W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION OVER THE SW GULF ENHANCING SHOWER/ THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 97W. ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO OVER THE E GULF ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE GULF S OF 28N E OF 86W. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN ITS HOLD OVER THE GULF EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC TO 92W. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE S GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 83W DRAWING SOME DRIER AIR S OVER THE REGION. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC THROUGH AN UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE SE COAST OF CUBA NEAR 19N76W CONTINUING SSW TO 14N81W. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF 17N FROM 72W-77W INCLUDING HAITI...E CUBA...AND E JAMAICA. LOW LEVEL SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 20N E OF 82W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE ABC ISLANDS NE ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 30N62W SW ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO THE UPPER LOW IN THE N CARIBBEAN ENHANCING THE SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF 22N FROM 67W-75W INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. THIS IS ALSO GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE BAHAMAS TO CUBA E OF 67W INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDAN AND SE GULF OF MEXICO. THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE SE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO NEAR 26N54W COVERING THE CENTRAL AND W TROPICAL ATLC. ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 21N63W 24N57W TO 33N55W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE N/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 28N BUT THE ASSOCIATED DISSIPATING FRONT IS N OF THE REGION. ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE EXTEND OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA OVER THE E ATLC E OF 36W. AFRICAN DUST COVERS MUCH OF THE TROPICAL ATLC WITH A WESTERN SURGE S OF 23N FROM 53W INTO THE E CARIBBEAN 65W WITH A SECOND SURGE E OF 40W WITH SOME CLEARING NEAR A NEWLY ANALYZED 1011 MB LOW NEAR 17N20W THAT HAS JUST EMERGED OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA AND WILL POSSIBLY BE THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED N OF THE REGION NEAR 36N49W AND EXTENDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. $$ WALLACE