000
AXNT20 KNHC 151105
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUL 15 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/33W SOUTH 
OF 18N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO 
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN 34W AND 
36W...AND FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 36W AND 41W. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT ALL THIS PRECIPITATION MAY BE RELATED TO AND/OR ENHANCED
BY THE 32W/33W TROPICAL WAVE.

A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED ALONG 18N55W 
13N60W...INTO EASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 8N62W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER 
SIDE OF 20N53W 15N60W TO 11N64W. SHOWERS IN VENEZUELA IN AN AREA 
FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 64W AND 68W HAVE BEEN MOVING 
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE LAST FIVE HOURS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W/86W SOUTH OF 20N...PASSING THROUGH 
CENTRAL HONDURAS INTO WESTERN NICARAGUA AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC 
OCEAN. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA WEST OF 
77W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE SOUTH OF 
22N WEST OF 80W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS 
SAME AREA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED AWAY FROM 
GUATEMALA ALREADY INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO HAVE MOVED AWAY FROM NICARAGUA INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.

...THE ITCZ...
FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 12N16W TO 9N29W 7N41W 8N58W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 15 TO 30 NM ON EITHER 
SIDE OF 6N13W 6N17W 8N22W 9N26W...AND FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN
28W AND 34W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN IS WEAK. A SURFACE RIDGE ENTERS THE 
AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...CROSSING THE NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA 
COAST...ROUGHLY TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. TO THE 
UPPER TEXAS COAST. ONE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES 
FROM THE CENTRAL TEXAS TOWARD THE TEXAS GULF COAST. MIDDLE TO 
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN 
SEA TROUGH ALSO APPROACHES THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. 
CYCLONIC FLOW ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A 22N66W CYCLONIC CENTER IS 
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TOWARD THE CUBA COAST NEAR 
23N80W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED 
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE NORTH OF 25N97W 26N90W 28N79W BEYOND 
31N74W. OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE EAST OF 87W IN THE 
GULF WATERS.
 
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W/86W SOUTH OF 20N...PASSING THROUGH 
CENTRAL HONDURAS INTO WESTERN NICARAGUA AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC 
OCEAN. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA WEST OF 
77W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE SOUTH OF 
22N WEST OF 80W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS 
SAME AREA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED AWAY FROM 
GUATEMALA ALREADY INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. STRONG SHOWERS 
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO HAVE MOVED AWAY FROM NICARAGUA INTO THE 
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES 
FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...INTO THE 
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SHOWERS ARE ABOUT 75 NM SOUTH OF 
HAITI...AND IN BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA. THIS PRECIPITATION
IS WITH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. 

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES OVER BERMUDA TO THE NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA 
COAST TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. BROAD SURFACE 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND FLORIDA.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES FROM A CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 30N56W TO 23N67W ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO 
THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE 
FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 64W AND 70W. A NARROW MIDDLE TO UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 29N20W TO 25N24W 23N28W...TO
A 19N35W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 10N45W.

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