000
AXNT20 KNHC 150603
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN JUL 15 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W/31W
SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS FROM 7N TO 13N BETWEEN 20W AND 34W.

A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED ALONG 18N54W
13N58W...INTO EASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 5N6W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 20N54W 15N58W TO 12N64W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W/85W SOUTH OF 19N...PASSING THROUGH 
EASTERN HONDURAS INTO NICARAGUA AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. 
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA WEST OF 77W. THE 
STRONGEST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING AWAY FROM
EL SALVADOR AND SOUTHWESTERN NICARAGUA. ISOLATED MODERATE 
SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE PANAMA/COSTA 
RICA BORDER TO COZUMEL ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.

...THE ITCZ...
FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 12N16W TO 10N30W 8N36W 9N50W
9N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG 
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 6N TO 7N BETWEEN 35W AND 40W...AND FROM
2N TO 3N BETWEEN 34W AND 37W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO 
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 13N EAST
OF 30W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN 45W AND 50W.
 
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN IS WEAK. A SURFACE RIDGE ENTERS THE 
AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...CROSSING THE NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA 
COAST...TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. ONE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL TEXAS TOWARD THE TEXAS GULF 
COAST. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW FROM AN ATLANTIC 
OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH ALSO APPROACHES THE SOUTHEASTERN 
CORNER OF THE AREA. CYCLONIC FLOW ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
A 22N66W CYCLONIC CENTER IS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS 
TOWARD THE CUBA COAST NEAR 23N80W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST 
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE NORTH OF 
25N97W 26N90W 28N79W BEYOND 31N74W. OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE 
SHOWERS ARE EAST OF 87W IN THE GULF WATERS.
 
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W/85W SOUTH OF 19N...PASSING THROUGH 
EASTERN HONDURAS INTO NICARAGUA AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. 
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA WEST OF 77W.
THE STRONGEST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING AWAY FROM
EL SALVADOR AND SOUTHWESTERN NICARAGUA. ISOLATED MODERATE 
SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE PANAMA/
COSTA RICA BORDER TO COZUMEL ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN YUCATAN 
PENINSULA.A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W/85W SOUTH OF 
19N...PASSING THROUGH EASTERN HONDURAS INTO NICARAGUA AND THE 
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE 
AREA WEST OF 77W. THE STRONGEST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE 
MOVING AWAY FROM EL SALVADOR AND SOUTHWESTERN NICARAGUA. 
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 
THE PANAMA/ COSTA RICA BORDER TO COZUMEL ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN 
YUCATAN PENINSULA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES FROM 
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN 
CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS WERE WITHIN 15 TO 20 NM 
ON EITHER SIDE OF 18N74W...IN BETWEEN SOUTHWESTERN HAITI AND 
JAMAICA...AND  19N76W 21N79W 24N82W

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES OVER BERMUDA TO THE NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA 
COAST TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
IS NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND FLORIDA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 
30N55W TO 22N67W ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 60W AND 
70W. A NARROW MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N17W 
TO 26N20W 23N28W...TO A 20N34W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 
16N38W. 

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