000 AXNT20 KNHC 150006 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT JUL 14 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 15 KT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THIS IS A FAIRLY LARGE WAVE WITH TURNING IN THE LOW LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS FIELD NOTED BETWEEN 20W AND 40W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 29W-35W. ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED ALONG 18N51N 12N56W 5N59W MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED WITHIN 120 TO 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W S OF 18N TO COSTA RICA AND THE ERN PACIFIC MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 80W-83W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...AND EL SALVADOR FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 83W-89W. ...THE ITCZ... AXIS OF THE ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 9N30W 7N40W 10N60W. OTHER THAN THE CONVECTION MENTIONED ABOVE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TWO ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 15W-18W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC A WEAK 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27N90W PRODUCING LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS FURTHER N ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA ALONG 30N88W 29N92W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 29N-31N BETWEEN 86W-93W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N FLORIDA FROM 30N-31N BETWEEN 81W-85W DUE TO PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY. FURTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER S FLORIDA FROM 26N-27N BETWEEN 80W-82W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 90W-92W...AND FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 87W-90W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO W OF 85W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S FLORIDA NEAR 26N80W. EXPECT THE SURFACE HIGH TO DISSIPATE AS A SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE ATLANTIC PUSHES W INTO THE GULF. EXPECT CONVECTION OVER THE N GULF N OF 28N...OVER THE E GULF AND FLORIDA E OF 87W...AND OVER THE S GULF AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA S OF 22N...OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS INFLUENCING THE WEATHER IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. SEE ABOVE. TRADEWINDS ARE ALSO THE STRONGEST NEAR THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA AT 25 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 80W-83W. ELSEWHERE... SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER CUBA BETWEEN 80W-83W. SHOWERS EXTEND FROM PUERTO RICO TO HISPANIOLA...AS NOTED ON THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N87W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA N OF 15N AND E OF 82W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF 15N AND E OF 65W. EXPECT SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN DUE TO A NEW TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CUBA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 77W-80W. A DOMINATE 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 35N48W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER OVER MOST OF THE ATLANTIC. AS OF 2100 UTC... A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 28N80W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S FLORIDA NEAR 26N80W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 24N65W. A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SW TO JAMAICA. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N54W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE TROPICS FROM 10N-22N BETWEEN 30W-60W. $$ FORMOSA