000 AXNT20 KNHC 120505 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU JUL 12 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W/34W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. BROAD LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 31W-36W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W/61W S OF 17N MOVING W 15 KT. WEAK LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY MOSTLY S OF 15N. SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 12N FROM 58W-66W INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND TRINIDAD/TOBAGO. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W/73W S OF 17N MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE POSITION IS BASED ON CONTINUITY AS A SATELLITE SIGNATURE IS NOT OBSERVED. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWER/CONVECTION IS NOTED. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W S OF 17N MOVING W 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND IN THE E PACIFIC REGION WITH LITTLE INDICATION OF ITS PRESENCE IN THE CARIBBEAN. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N14W 9N31W 6N42W 8N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 36W-40W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 8N BETWEEN 43W-51W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-13N E OF 22W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF WITH THE UPPER HIGH OFF THE COAST OF NE LOUISIANA NEAR 27N90W EXTENDING ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC. AN UPPER HIGH IS OVER SW MEXICO WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N TO OVER SW TEXAS GIVING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION S OF 21N. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS INLAND OVER THE SE US WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT/TROUGHS INLAND AS WELL. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE N GULF COAST OF FLORIDA AND ALABAMA BETWEEN PANAMA CITY AND THE MISSISSIPPI BORDER. SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF WITH A 1019 MB HIGH IN THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 27N90W. THIS IS GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FAR SE GULF S OF 26N E OF 83W. CARIBBEAN SEA... ONCE AGAIN THE SW CARIBBEAN IS THE MOST ACTIVE TONIGHT DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ IN THE E PACIFIC REGION...TROPICAL WAVES...AND A NEAR PERSISTENT 1008 MB LOW ALONG THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER. THIS COMBINATION IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF A LINE FROM JUST INLAND OVER NICARAGUA NEAR 12N84W TO OVER COLOMBIA AND PANAMA NEAR THE SURFACE LOW. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC AND THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE N CARIBBEAN N OF 18N W OF 75W WHILE A SECOND UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 72W INDUCING AN UPPER TROUGH FROM HAITI TO NE NICARAGUA. DRY STABLE UPPER AIR COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN...HOWEVER SOME CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 17N FROM PUERTO RICO TO CENTRAL CUBA. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER HIGH ANCHORED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC W OF 65W. THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS DOMINATED BY RATHER BENIGN FEATURES...SUCH AS A WEAK UPPER LOW NEAR 27N54W AND AN UPPER RIDGE-TROUGH OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC. DRY STABLE AIR AND A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A 1029 MB HIGH OVER THE SE AZORES THROUGH A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 34N38W CONTINUING SW THROUGH 30N55W ACROSS THE N BAHAMAS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION OF THE ATLC WITH SOME POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS BETWEEN THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS AND FLORIDA AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE E COAST OF FLORIDA. $$ WALLACE